Iceland and Norway make progress towards attaining 2030 climate targets under EEA law

The EFTA Surveillance Authority (ESA) has today published its fifth annual report on progress made by Iceland and Norway towards attaining their 2030 emission-reduction targets under the EEA Agreement.

This year's Climate Progress Report finds that Iceland and Norway are making promising progress to attain their current emission reduction targets for the effort sharing sectors (buildings, agriculture, domestic transport, small industry and waste). Norway and Iceland are required to reduce their emissions by 2030, with 40% and 29% respectively, compared to 2005 levels.

This must be achieved progressively by attaining annual targets in the period 2021-2030.

Among the report's findings are:

• Iceland and Norway are projected to meet their current effort sharing targets, when considering the impact of new measures planned and available flexibilities.
• Norway's greenhouse gas emissions fell by 2.9% in 2024, compared to 2023 and by 18.4% compared to 2005.
• Iceland's greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.1% in 2024, compared to 2023, while 2024 emissions reflect a decrease of 7.7% compared to 2005.
• Norway projects emission reductions of 48.7% in 2030, compared to 2005.
• For Iceland the projected emission reductions in 2030 are 27.1%, compared to 2005.
• Norway needs to address an expected gap to its obligations for the land use and forestry sectors.

ESA's report points out two main challenges ahead:

Achieving the EEA targets relies on the effective and timely implementation of existing and planned measures. Ongoing commitment to climate policies will be essential for maintaining this progress.

The existing EEA targets do not fully reflect the higher ambitions of Iceland and Norway under the Paris Agreement. Both countries will need to increase their efforts to fulfil their strengthened climate targets for 2030.

Framework for ESA's assessment

The Effort Sharing Regulation sets binding targets for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The LULUCF Regulation requires the States to ensure that emissions from land use and forestry are balanced by at least an equivalent removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere.

It should be noted that Iceland and Norway, like the European Union, have updated their 2030 targets under the Paris Agreement. These new commitments have yet to be reflected in the EEA Agreement. As ESA is mandated to assess the progress made by Iceland and Norway towards the targets currently in force under EEA law, the report assesses their progress towards targets reflecting the previous obligations under the Paris Agreement, specifically a reduction of at least 40% by 2030 compared to 1990.

Read ESA's report here.

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