Is Rivian Stock Still Worth Owning After Its Quarter

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Rivian Automotive (RIVN) shareholders are betting on the R2, a lower-cost SUV that management expects to take its car business to a gross profit by the end of 2026. Rivian reported fiscal Q3 2026 results on October 29, and the stock rose 6.2% in the following session while the S&P 500 fell 1.8%. Even though management raised its delivery forecast, the car business still sold its vehicles at a gross loss. How much closer did fiscal Q3 2026 bring Rivian to profit?

Rivian Expects A Smaller 2026 Loss, Partly From Credits

The company moved closer based on management's own forecast, though not all of the gain came from selling cars. Rivian now expects a 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss, its own measure of operating losses, of $1.75 billion to $1.85 billion, compared with $1.9 billion in its July forecast. That measure is not the operating loss in the company's filings, which was $3.43 billion over the four quarters ended September 2026. Management said the $100 million improvement at the midpoint came from regulatory credit revenue, a tariff refund receivable and higher deliveries, so higher deliveries were only one of the three. Rivian also lifted its 2026 delivery forecast to 67,000 to 70,000 vehicles, from 65,000 to 70,000.

News reports said the quarter beat Wall Street's earnings expectations, and Rivian's rise stood apart from its peers. Tesla and Ford each fell about 0.9% over the same session, while General Motors rose 2.0%. By November 3, Rivian stock was up 16.1% from its October 29 close, against a 1.9% fall for the S&P 500.

Rivian's Sales Growth Picked Up Each Quarter In 2026

Rivian's revenue grew 11.4% from a year earlier in fiscal Q1 2026 and 27.2% in Q2. Revenue then grew 38.3% in Q3, and management said on the October 29 call that the R2 outsold both the R1 and the commercial vans. The operating loss stayed between $0.84 billion and $0.88 billion a quarter, so it shrank as a share of sales from 63.8% of revenue in Q1 to 40.9% in Q3.

Rivian's car business still lost money in Q3. Its gross loss was $80 million in Q3, compared with $130 million a year earlier, and management said regulatory credits and a tariff refund helped that line. Management put the extra cost of building the R2 at early volumes at about $120 million in the quarter, an amount greater than the car business's whole gross loss. Company-wide gross margin slipped to 8.2% in Q3, from 10.8% in Q2.

Rivian Still Burns Cash While The R2 Ramps

Rivian's free cash flow was negative $1.12 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, compared with negative $0.42 billion a year earlier. The company ended September with $5.5 billion of cash and short-term investments, which was about the same as its debt. Management puts its total available liquidity and targeted capital at about $13 billion, counting money from Volkswagen Group, Uber and a Department of Energy loan that all come with conditions.

Spending is set to rise. Management expects a meaningful step-up in capital spending in 2027 as construction ramps at its Georgia plant, and it expects research and development costs to grow more in 2027 than in 2026. On the October 29 call, management also said Rivian intends to exit the fourth quarter at an automotive gross profit, and that it would not expect one for the full quarter.

Whether Rivian's car business ends fiscal Q4 2026 at a gross profit is the test to watch when the company reports in February 2027.

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