IMF - International Monetary Fund

09/15/2025 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 09/15/2025 12:18

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Belize

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Belize

September 15, 2025

  • The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the 2025 Article IV consultation with Belize on September 10, 2025.
  • After a remarkable recovery following the pandemic, growth has slowed, while inflation has decelerated, and the public debt-to-GDP ratio has declined sharply. IMF staff expects growth to converge to its potential of about 2 percent over the medium term, reflecting capacity constraints. The public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to fall more slowly, requiring additional fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing structural reforms to reduce debt to 50 percent of GDP by 2030.
  • Policy priorities include revenue mobilization and reprioritization of expenditure; greater spending in priority areas; expanded access to finance; accelerating growth-enhancing and structural reforms; and building resilience to natural disasters.

Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for Belize.[1] The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.[2]

Belize has experienced a remarkable recovery following the pandemic. After expanding by 30.6 percent between 2021 and 2023, real GDP grew by 8.1 percent in 2024, driven by positive developments in tourism, trade, and transport. At the same time, inflation continues to moderate, slowing to 1.0 percent in May 2025 from 4.0 percent in May 2024, owing to decelerations across most categories. This strong nominal growth, combined with expenditure control and a sharp recovery in government revenues, improved the primary balance to 1.7 percent of GDP in FY2024. In turn, public debt fell sharply to 61.1 percent of GDP in 2024, after peaking at 103.3 percent of GDP in 2020, also supported by a debt-for-marine protection swap and a negotiated discount on the debt with Petrocaribe.

Real GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 1.5 percent in 2025-due largely to a slowdown in tourism and a weak agricultural sector performance-and is projected to gradually converge to its potential of about 2 percent over the medium term, absent expanded hotel and flight capacity. As inflationary pressures from key trading partners and global oil prices weaken, inflation is expected to converge to 1.3 percent, and the current account deficit is expected to narrow to about 1.2 percent of GDP over the medium term from 1.5 percent in 2024. International reserves are expected to rise to about 4 months of imports (from 3.5 in 2024) but will remain below the ARA metric by 2030. Risks to the growth outlook remain tilted to the downside, and stem mainly from higher global policy uncertainty, increased trade barriers, higher-for-longer global interest rates, and increased or sustained climate-related disasters. However, the successful implementation of several large infrastructure projects could push medium-term growth higher.

Executive Board Assessment[3]

Executive Directors welcomed the strong recovery following the Covid 19 pandemic and the improved social outcomes and financial stability. Directors highlighted that growth is expected to decelerate sharply in 2025, before converging to its potential over the medium term. Noting the downside risks stemming from high exposure to external risks and increased global uncertainty, Directors stressed the need to reduce public debt and accelerate reforms to unlock potential growth and build resilience to natural disasters. As a small developing country with capacity constraints, they agreed on the importance of continued tailored policy advice and technical assistance to support implementation in Belize.

Directors welcomed the authorities' commitment to building buffers against future shocks, particularly by lowering public debt to below 50 percent of GDP. They recommended enhanced revenue mobilization and reprioritization of current expenditure, including through pension reform, to make space for priority spending on targeted social programs, crime prevention, and infrastructure. Establishing a medium term fiscal framework with clear targets and measures would improve credibility and pave the way for an effective Fiscal Responsibility Law.

Directors agreed that continued reserves accumulation would help strengthen the credibility of the currency peg. Further fiscal consolidation, structural reforms to enhance competitiveness, and continued efforts to reduce the central bank's holdings of government securities are important measures.

Directors welcomed the decline in systemic risks and encouraged continued commitment and vigilance to maintain financial stability. They highlighted the need to expedite the operationalization of the Deposit Insurance Act to enhance the financial safety net. Directors also agreed on the importance of improving private sector access to financing to boost investment. They highlighted the considerable progress on strengthening the AML/CFT framework and called for continued efforts to address remaining gaps.

Directors agreed that continued efforts to accelerate growth enhancing structural reforms are necessary to boost potential growth. They recommended measures to address structural barriers, increase female labor force participation, address capacity constraints in the tourism sector, and improve the business climate. Measures to further enhance Belize's resilience to natural disasters remain essential.


Table 1. Belize: Selected Social and Economic Indicators

I. Population and Social Indicators

Area (sq.km.)

22,860

Human development index (rank), 2022

118

Population (thousands), 2024

410.9

Under-five mortality rate (per thousand), 2021

11.2

GDP per capita, (current US$), 2023

7,587

Unemployment rate (percent), April 2025

2.1

Life expectancy at birth (years), 2021

70.5

Multidimensional poverty (percent of population), 2024

22.1

II. Economic Indicators

Projections

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

National income and prices

(Annual percentage changes, calendar year)

GDP at constant prices

17.7

9.7

1.1

8.1

1.5

2.4

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.0

Consumer prices (end of period)

4.9

6.7

3.7

2.6

1.5

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

Consumer prices (average)

3.2

6.3

4.4

3.3

1.4

1.9

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

Central government 1/

(In percent of fiscal year GDP)

Revenue and grants

22.5

22.8

23.2

24.0

24.7

25.0

24.0

24.0

24.0

24.0

Current non-interest expenditure

17.3

16.4

16.3

16.2

16.2

16.6

17.1

16.8

16.8

16.8

Interest payment

1.3

1.7

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2

Capital expenditure and net lending

5.2

5.5

7.3

6.1

7.4

7.6

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

Capital expenditure

5.1

5.5

7.3

6.0

7.3

7.5

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.3

Net lending

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Primary balance

0.0

0.9

-0.5

1.7

1.1

0.8

0.6

0.8

0.8

0.8

Overall balance

-1.3

-0.8

-2.7

-0.5

-1.2

-1.5

-1.8

-1.5

-1.5

-1.4

Public debt

(In percent of calendar year GDP)

Public debt 2/

82.5

66.8

67.2

61.1

60.4

59.3

59.1

58.7

58.4

58.0

Domestic debt

27.2

23.1

24.6

22.2

21.6

20.5

20.4

20.6

20.9

21.2

External debt

55.3

43.7

42.6

38.9

38.9

38.8

38.7

38.1

37.4

36.8

Principal payment

8.6

5.8

6.7

6.6

7.5

7.9

6.9

6.2

6.1

6.4

Domestic

6.4

4.5

5.1

4.5

5.7

6.2

5.2

4.4

4.4

4.8

External

2.1

1.3

1.6

2.0

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.6

(Annual percentage changes, calendar year)

Money and credit

Private sector credit by commercial banks

2.5

4.4

5.9

4.1

3.2

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

Money and quasi-money (M2)

12.3

4.7

7.0

9.4

2.1

4.4

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

External sector

(Annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated)

External current account (percent of GDP) 3/

-6.5

-8.3

-0.6

-1.5

-1.5

-1.4

-1.3

-1.2

-1.2

-1.2

Real effective exchange rate (+ = depreciation)

-2.3

2.8

0.2

0.6

…

…

…

…

…

…

Gross international reserves (US$ millions)

420

482

474

498

527

566

599

637

681

721

In months of imports

3.2

3.7

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.1

Memorandum items

Output gap (percent of potential output)

-5.2

-0.3

-2.4

1.9

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

Nominal GDP (BZ$ millions)

4,841

5,693

6,134

6,847

7,046

7,356

7,610

7,867

8,125

8,392

Sources: Belize authorities; UNDP Human Development Report; World Development Indicators; and staff estimates and projections.

1/ Fiscal year (April to March).

2/ Public debt includes central government debt as well as external financial and non-financial public sector debt.

3/ Including official grants.

[1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

[2] Under the IMF's Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to member countries is voluntary and requires the member consent. The staff report will be shortly published on the https://www.imf.org/Belize page.

[3] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chair of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: https://http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

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