Solar PPA prices need 49% average increase to offset tax credit loss

CALGARY, Alberta (Nov. 10, 2026) - Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, is releasing a new analysis focused on U.S. solar power purchase agreement (PPA) pricing, contract durations and the economic impact of phasing out the solar investment tax credit (ITC). EIR's analysis finds that solar PPA prices would need to increase approximately 49% on average to maintain project returns without the credit.

EIR conducted project-level economic modeling to evaluate the impact of losing the solar investment tax credit, finding that PPA prices would need to increase between 39% and 61%, depending on the market, to maintain the same unlevered project returns. Projects that retain the credit by meeting the eligibility conditions described in the report have a significant cost advantage over those that do not.

The findings come as solar PPA prices remain substantially above their historical lows. Median prices reached $43.57/MWh in 2025, approximately 64% higher than the 2019 low of $26.63/MWh. EIR attributes the higher pricing environment to a combination of post-COVID-19 inflation, increased demand following the Inflation Reduction Act, supply chain constraints and tariff pressures.

The report also highlights differences in pricing and contract preferences among electricity buyers. Corporate offtakers pay a median $47.54/MWh for solar PPAs with a 15-year median duration, compared with $31.05/MWh for utilities and $29.16/MWh for government buyers, whose contracts typically extend more than 21 years. These differences are consistent with a premium for shorter-term contractual flexibility.

"Our analysis shows how important the investment tax credit is to solar project economics. Without it, PPA prices would need to rise by nearly 50% on average to maintain the same project returns. That creates a substantial economic difference between projects that retain the credit and those that move forward without it," said Ben Rosen, EIR analyst and report author.

Key takeaways:

• Tax credit phaseout: Solar PPA prices would need to increase 39%-61%, or approximately 49% on average, to maintain modeled unlevered project returns without the investment tax credit.
• Project economics: Projects that began construction by July 4, 2026, or enter service by December 31, 2027, can retain the credit under the conditions described in the report, providing a cost advantage over projects without the incentive.
• Historical pricing: Median solar PPA prices reached $43.57/MWh in 2025, approximately 64% above their 2019 low of $26.63/MWh.
• Corporate procurement: Corporate buyers pay a median $47.54/MWh for 15-year solar PPAs, compared with $31.05/MWh for utilities and $29.16/MWh for government buyers with longer contracts.

EIR's analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE™.

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Full copies of EIR research reports cannot be distributed to members of the media. Journalists interested in learning more about this analysis are encouraged to use the Request Media Interview button to schedule a time to meet with one of our expert analysts, who can provide context, insight, and deeper discussion of the findings.

About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.