Humanitarian funding to El Niño critically insufficient

Global funding for the preparation and response to El Niño and the harms it will bring to millions of people is critically insufficient, Oxfam warned today.

The weather phenomenon is already having a catastrophic impact across much of the world, with wildfires, crop failures and growing severe food and water insecurity. El Niño's intensity is likely to peak from this month until April next year. Scientists report it could be the strongest on record.

The total global funding for El Niño humanitarian preparation and response is currently $450 million. The UN Central Emergency Response Fund has allocated up to $100 million and has to date disbursed $20 million to six countries. The majority of the remaining $350 million is reliant on appeals and less than 20 per cent has so far been pledged. By comparison, the previous strongest El Niño in 2015-2016 - when more than 60 million people were affected - triggered a $5 billion collective appeal, of which nearly $2 billion was successfully raised.

At last month's UN General Assembly, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and countries including Vanuatu, India and Barbados sounded strong warnings about the escalating crisis. However, these interventions have yet to translate into a dedicated UN resolution on El Niño, as was the case during previous El Niño events when a formal UN recognition helped to galvanise international action and funding.

"This El Niño is impacting a climate already overheated by the outsized carbon emissions of the world's richest polluters," said Oxfam's Humanitarian Director Marta Valdes García. "It is happening at the worst possible time, putting more stress on a weakened humanitarian system that is already struggling to keep up with the enormous scale of need.

"The funding available is dwarfed by the scale of this unprecedented threat and the harms it threatens. Preparations are already late. This El Niño will be catastrophic for millions of people facing failed harvests, water shortages, devastating floods and loss of life. We need urgent action now."

Many low and middle-income countries are already in precarious positions because of debt, poverty, weak public services and, in some cases, conflict. Meanwhile, cuts to international aid and climate finance by a third over the last three years have seriously weakened support for them:

• In eastern and southern Africa, 62 million people are facing worsening food insecurity due to flooding and drought, with several countries at risk of famine, including Sudan, South Sudan and Somalia. Water levels are already declining at nearly 80 per cent of water points across The Sahel, with particularly concerning conditions in Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad.
  
• Across Asia and the Pacific, lack of rain is already affecting millions of people. In Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, Fiji, and Tonga, there is drought, water shortages, desiccated plantations and heightened wildfire risk, while in Sri Lanka high temperatures and lack of rain is causing the worst drought in a decade.
  
• Across Latin America, 16 million more people are expected to experience food insecurity in the coming months. In Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, Oxfam's recent assessment found that more than 70,000 farming households reported maize crop losses, with nearly four in five losing between 75 and 100 per cent of their harvest.
  
• In Southwest Asia and North Africa, more than 8 million people in Syria and Palestine have acute levels of food insecurity, while Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia are all experiencing recurrent droughts, putting additional pressure on water resources, agricultural production and livelihoods.

"South Sudan is approaching a critical tipping point. Rainfall from June to September has been substantially below average and there have been above-average temperatures across much of the country," said Shabnam Baloch, Oxfam Country Director in South Sudan.

"Nearly 8 million people - more than half the population - are facing acute food insecurity and nearly 2 million of them are children being affected by acute malnutrition. Famine risks persist in some of the hardest-hit areas. The country is already among the world's most severe hunger hotspots."

In order to cope over the coming months, Oxfam, as with other civil society organisations, has been redesigning and reprioritizing its humanitarian programming with partners across multiple countries, including:

• In the Philippines, partnering with forecasting agencies for early warning, installing water storage in communities where there have been significant declines in rainfall and building preparedness capacity with communities.
  
• In Timor Leste and Indonesia, supporting vulnerable communities through water conservation initiatives and climate smart agriculture practices.
  
• In Kenya, working with community-based organisations, youth responders and residents in flood-risk zones to map local risks and establish resilience hubs. Also, planning for cash transfers, emergency shelter materials, women dignity kits and water and sanitation support. ]
  
• In Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, providing cash transfers, vouchers and food assistance, strengthening early warning systems and supporting community seed banks. Oxfam is also generating evidence to inform food security analyses and humanitarian decision-making.

The crisis is expected to further increase food, fuel and fertiliser costs which are already spiralling due to the conflict in Iran. This will cause further disruptions to food supply chains and increase volatility in global markets.

"El Niño is a multiplier phenomenon. We know that it's always more cost-effective to act before a crisis hits than to try to pick up the pieces afterwards," Valdes Garcia said. "Rich donor governments cannot continue to be complacent. Disaster will hit country after country. We must not come to regret that the worst impacts of this unfolding crisis were not earlier mitigated."

Oxfam is calling for governments to immediately scale up humanitarian funding, released against credible forecasts and locally agreed plans, and to cancel unsustainable debts that limit countries' ability to respond. Oxfam is calling for massive increases in investments now into adaptation, resilient food systems, water security and locally led responses.