CNB stress tests confirm high resilience of banks

Domestic banks are in very good shape and would be able to withstand a significant deterioration in economic conditions. This is confirmed by the results of supervisory stress tests conducted by the Czech National Bank. According to the results, the domestic banking sector has a robust capital buffer.

The results of the stress tests of banks subject to CNB supervision showed that the banking sector would be able to withstand even highly adverse economic conditions. A key factor is its good initial position, supported by strong capitalisation.

The consolidated capital ratio of the part of the banking sector tested stood at 20.7% at the end of 2025. In the Adverse Scenario of the test, which assumed a strong decline in economic activity in the Czech Republic and abroad between 2026 and 2028, this ratio would fall to 18.4%. This means that even in the Adverse Scenario, the capital adequacy of the part of the banking sector tested would not come close to the regulatory minimum.

The supervisory stress test of banks is based on the methodology of the European Banking Authority (EBA), adapted to the specificities of the Czech banking sector. The Baseline Scenario is based on the CNB's official macroeconomic forecast published in Monetary Policy Report - Winter 2026, while the Adverse Scenario simulates a significant deterioration in economic conditions. The CNB included 13 domestic banks in this year's test, representing around 92% of the assets of the Czech banking sector. Based on data as of the end of 2025, the impacts of credit, market and operational risk were assessed over a three-year horizon in both the Baseline Scenario and the Adverse Scenario, and the paths of interest and non-interest income, costs and capital were evaluated.

The CNB uses stress testing as a tool for supervising and assessing the resilience of financial institutions based in the Czech Republic and of the financial system as a whole. It has been conducting supervisory stress tests in partnership with selected banks since 2009. Since 2004, it has also been conducting macro-stress tests, which assess the resilience of the banking sector on the basis of the CNB's internal models. The aggregate results of the supervisory stress tests are published on the CNB website.

Petra Vlčková
CNB Communications Division