How Will Walmart Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings

Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, August 20, 2026. The company has $918 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $725 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $30 billion in operating profits and net income of $23 billion. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.

Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

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Walmart's Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 10 positive returns = 4.6%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -4.5%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves "long" for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. Some of that pricing-in may even begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Walmart stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Walmart. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

* N/A indicates no comparable post-earnings session for that peer in that quarter

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