Water + Weather for July 2026

Transcript

Dr. Mark Wentzel - Hydrologist, Texas Water Development Board

Hi everyone, and welcome to the Texas Water Development Board's latest Water and Weather report. I'm Dr. Mark Wentzel, a hydrologist in the Surface Water Division here at the agency. And today, we'll be taking a look at conditions for our state at the end of July. Let's take a look at some of the big water and weather headlines.

Although some parts of the state received four times their normal rainfall, statewide, July was warmer and only slightly wetter than normal. Near the end of July, 23 percent of the state was in drought, down nine percentage points since late June. Storage in our water supply reservoirs ended July at 77.8 percent of capacity, up less than a percentage point from the end of June, and still more than four percentage points below normal for this time of year. Through the end of November, drought conditions are expected to improve and contract in the western half of the state, but persist and expand in the eastern half.

Let's take a closer look at temperature and precipitation. On these maps, we're looking at both parameters relative to 21st century averages for July. From a water supply perspective, reds, oranges, and yellows mean trouble on both maps. They show areas with above-average temperature on the left and below-average precipitation on the right. Statewide, July was warmer and slightly wetter than normal. Precipitation, however, did vary widely across the state. Uvalde County in Central Texas received almost five times its normal precipitation for the month, leading to destructive flooding. Meanwhile, Kleberg and Nueces Counties on the Texas coast, roughly 200 miles to the southeast, received less than one-fifth of their normal precipitation.

Overall, drought contracted nine percentage points during July and covered less than a quarter of the state by the end of the month--the tan, orange, and red areas on this map. But as the state settled into its typical late summer pattern of hot and dry conditions, drought area ticked up one percentage point during the last week of July. That was the first weekly increase in drought area in four months.

Although supplies increased significantly in parts of Central and South Texas, statewide surface water supplies increased a modest seven-tenths of a percentage point in July. On this chart, the dark line shows statewide storage this year compared to minimum, maximum, and median values for the day of the year from data going back to 1990. Also displayed are lighter lines that show how we did in 2025 and 2024, and a red line that shows how we did in 2011. July's increase was the fourth consecutive monthly increase, but still leaves us more than four percentage points below normal for this time of year.

What can we expect going forward? A bit of a mixed bag through the end of November. The National Weather Service is predicting drought improvement and some contraction on the western half of the state, but drought persistence and some expansion on the eastern half of the state. Looking a little farther out into the winter, there's reason for more optimism. El Niño conditions-warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern Equatorial Pacific-are in place and expected to persist well into next year. Those conditions typically bring Texas falls and winters that are cooler and wetter than normal, and favorable for drought improvement and contraction. That concludes our report. Until next time. I hope you all stay healthy and safe.