CME Group Inc.

10/01/2025 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 10/01/2025 05:11

As U.S. Stocks Hit Records, Do Mexican Equities Offer Diversification Opportunities

As U.S. stocks continue to hit record highs, some investors might be looking beyond its borders for portfolio diversification. Mexico, with its distinct economic landscape and newly introduced futures contract on the Mexican S&P BMV IPC index, may present an opportunity. It's a timely question to ask: Are Mexican stocks a bargain compared to their U.S. counterparts?

Valuation and Industry Differences

When examining price-to-earnings ratios, Mexican stocks appear to be significantly cheaper compared to their U.S. counterparts. The S&P 500 is trading at around 25 times its estimated 2025 earnings, whereas the Mexican stock market is valued at just 13 times earnings.

However, this valuation gap is complicated by macroeconomic factors. Mexican interest rates are currently double those in the U.S. and this higher rate environment translates into a higher discount factor applied to Mexican earnings, making the relative value proposition on a price-to-earnings basis somewhat ambiguous. But there's a lot more to know beyond valuation levels about Mexican equities.

Comparing Performance: Local vs. Same Currency

Looking back to the year 2000, Mexican equities have shown strong performance in local currency terms. The S&P/BMV IPC Index has delivered returns roughly twice those of the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500.

However, the Mexican peso has depreciated by about 50% against the U.S. dollar over the same period. When viewed in U.S. dollar terms, Mexico's stock market has returned almost the same as the major U.S. indices since 2000.

What's particularly noteworthy is the timing of these returns. From 2000 to 2012, Mexican stocks were the standout performers. Since 2012, U.S. stocks have taken the lead. This suggests that Mexican equities and U.S. stocks have delivered different returns at different times, making the Mexican market a potential portfolio diversifier.

The Case for Portfolio Diversification

The average daily correlation between Mexican and U.S. stocks over the past dozen years has averaged around 0.4, indicating a relatively weak correlation.

The sector composition of the Mexican stock market also differs significantly from that of the U.S. The Mexican market is heavily weighted toward consumer staples, materials, industrials and financials, while technology stocks make up over one-third of the S&P 500's value. This divergence in sector composition further explains the low correlation.

Given these factors, Mexican stocks could be an intriguing diversification opportunity for U.S. market portfolios.

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OpenMarkets is an online magazine and blog focused on global markets and economic trends. It combines feature articles, news briefs and videos with contributions from leaders in business, finance and economics in an interactive forum designed to foster conversation around the issues and ideas shaping our industry.

All examples are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views expressed in OpenMarkets articles reflect solely those of their respective authors and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. OpenMarkets and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. Neither futures trading nor swaps trading are suitable for all investors, and each involves the risk of loss. Swaps trading should only be undertaken by investors who are Eligible Contract Participants (ECPs) within the meaning of Section 1a(18) of the Commodity Exchange Act. Futures and swaps each are leveraged investments and, because only a percentage of a contract's value is required to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money deposited for either a futures or swaps position. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their lifestyles and only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because traders cannot expect to profit on every trade. BrokerTec Americas LLC ("BAL") is a registered broker-dealer with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. (https://www.FINRA.org), and is a member of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (https://www.SIPC.org). BAL does not provide services to private or retail customers.. In the United Kingdom, BrokerTec Europe Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. CME Amsterdam B.V. is regulated in the Netherlands by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM) (https://www.AFM.nl). CME Investment Firm B.V. is also incorporated in the Netherlands and regulated by the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), as well as the Central Bank of the Netherlands (DNB).

CME Group Inc. published this content on October 01, 2025, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on October 01, 2025 at 11:11 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]