October 6 – Market Commentary

The Week in Three Numbers

2.095 billion - The September corn stocks, over 35% more than 2025, and larger than expectations.

75% - The Adequate-Surplus Topsoil moisture in Kansas, up from 59% last week.

54% - The percentage of the Kansas corn crop that has been harvested, slightly ahead of the five-year average.

Markets

We'll keep things relatively brief, focusing on the weekly closing tables, where markets are trending early this week, and a busy slate of reports released last week.

Corn, soybeans, and wheat all closed significantly lower last week. Corn saw a bold red roll off the board while trading below $5.00 for the first time since 9/11. There should be some technical support around the $4.85 range with there being several closes in that range. Wheat also saw a bold red roll off the board, with the new bold red being over 30 cents higher. However, that low is quite close to Friday's close. That could be a technical support, but we've now seen six straight weeks of closing lows, so we could very easily test that support.

In the energy markets, Crude, RBOB, and Soy Oil switched over to new trading months. Diesel traded over $5.00 off and on last week before "settling" at $4.50. Crude closed lower for the second week in a row as news out of the Strait of Hormuz has been relatively encouraging.

In the financials we saw new bold greens in the 10-Year Treasury yield and the Dollar while the S&P remained largely within its range over the last 12 weeks.

So far this week, the grain markets have shown some signs of stabilizing after last week's selloff. Corn closed slightly lower Monday but has seen better price action Tuesday, climbing back above $5.00 with some support from additional export sales to Mexico. That's an encouraging response considering the larger-than-expected September stocks number gave the market another bearish piece of information to digest. Soybeans and winter wheat have also recovered some of last week's losses early this week. It's too early to call it a change in trend, but after all three markets finished sharply lower last week, the early-week strength is at least worth watching.

The USDA released their quarterly Grain Stocks report this week, which largely contributed to the drop in prices. The report showed corn at 2.095 billion bushels, well above the 1.551 billion from last year, about 173 million bushels higher than WASDE's estimate for the 2025/26 ending stocks, and 184 million bushels above estimates. Soybeans and wheat saw better reports. Soybeans was tallied at 10 million bushels tighter than last year and 6 million bushels below estimates at 315 million bushels. Wheat saw 1.857 billion bushels, 288 million bushels below a year ago.

The USDA Agricultural Prices and Grain Crushings and Co-Products reports also released last week. Both reports are a month delayed, so we're seeing August data. For corn, agricultural prices jumped to $4.45 in the month of August, up from $4.26 in July, and $3.96 in August 2025. Wheat, soybeans, and sorghum all saw similar movements and every commodity is below the 2011 base price.

In the Grain Crushings and Co-Products report, fuel alcohol was revised down for July but we saw an uptick in August, it's highest level of the year. Beverage and Industrial alcohol saw downward revisions in July and lower production in August.

Crop progress report Monday showed the Kansas harvest being over half finished, slightly ahead of the five-year average.

The national average is just over a quarter finished. Meanwhile, conditions remained largely similar, but slightly improved.

However, moisture levels saw massive improvements.

The rain forecast should allow most of the corn belt to get back in the field this week.

Though temperatures are still above average.

Looking ahead

The USDA releases its October WASDE and Crop Production reports this week, putting yield and production estimates back at the center of attention. After last week's larger-than-expected Grain Stocks report, the big question will land on the corn balance sheet.

Stay safe!