ECA and APRM release the 2026 Africa Sovereign Credit Rating Outlook

The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), in partnership with the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), announces the publication of the 12th edition of the Africa Sovereign Credit Rating Outlook. This edition provides a comprehensive review of rating actions by Moody's, Standard & Poor's (S&P), and Fitch Ratings across African economies, outlining how global financial conditions, fiscal pressures, and governance reforms shaped sovereign credit trajectories throughout the year.

According to the report, During the second half of 2025, several African countries experienced sovereign credit rating upgrades driven by improved macroeconomic performance, fiscal consolidation, and progress in debt restructuring. As an example, Côte d'Ivoire was upgraded by Fitch based on strong political stability, sustained growth above 6%, and proactive debt management strategies, including Eurobond buybacks and diversification into Samurai bonds. On the contrary, Botswana's rating was downgraded both by Moody's and S&P, following a sharp fall in diamond revenues, which weakened fiscal balances and exposed vulnerabilities linked to limited economic diversification. However, the country has maintained its investment grade status.Outlook changes across the continent were mixed, signaling evolving risks and opportunities. For instance, Cape Verde, has received a positive outlook revision by S&P, indicating the potential for future upgrades if current improvements are sustained.

Following these country-specific credit developments, the report outlines a consolidated set of recommendations to help African governments strengthen their sovereign credit profiles. It stresses the need for African governments and rating agencies to strengthen engagement mechanisms to ensure that rating decisions reflect real-time economic reforms, improve transparency in methodologies, and revisit constraints such as the sovereign-ceiling framework that limits the ratings of strong domestic banks and corporates. The report urges agencies to broaden their assessment of fiscal strategies to recognise domestic borrowing as a deliberate, development-oriented policy choice rather than a sign of market distress, while governments should enhance transparency and diversify their investor base to reinforce credibility. It further calls for global rating methodologies to be adapted to African structural and economic realities - including informal sectors, development priorities and reform momentum - highlighting the need for context-sensitive approaches similar to recent tailored methodologies used in other regions. Finally, the report underscores accelerating the operationalization of the African Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) to provide ratings better aligned with African economic contexts and to complement global reforms aimed at improving fairness, accuracy and market participation.

This report reflects the continued collaboration between ECA and APRM in strengthening Africa's collective understanding of sovereign rating processes, supporting Member States in navigating global financial systems, and advocating for fair and transparent rating practices. Its findings will feed into planned policy dialogues, continental workshops, and the upcoming webinar designed to disseminate insights to stakeholders across Africa.

Download the report here: https://repository.uneca.org/handle/10855/59153

Issued by:
Communications Section
Economic Commission for Africa
PO Box 3001
Addis Ababa
Ethiopia
Tel: +251 11 551 5826
E-mail: [email protected]