FIFA World Cup drives global media inflation to 4.4%, WFA Outlook

Global media price inflation looks set to increase to 4.4% for 2026, thanks largely to the impact of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to the latest wave of Outlook, WFA's biannual poll of media price inflation forecasts.

This means that average global media inflation will be significantly higher than the +4% rise seen in 2025, although some markets such as China will see a decrease (down to 2.9% from 3.4% in 2025).

Major sporting events have historically created strong inflationary impacts on media markets, and forecasts for 2026 are no exception. This time the rise in global media inflation has been driven by forecasts from World Cup co-host US, with inflation forecasts a full percentage point higher in 2026 than they were in 2025 (4.0% vs. 3.0%).

The impact extends across traditional media - Linear TV, OOH and DOOH in co-host markets (USA, Canada, Mexico) - as well as in football-passionate countries worldwide in what is a historically quiet time of the year. For example, the UK's Linear TV inflation nearly quintuples from +2.3% to +11.3% during the quarter in which the tournament takes place.

"The World Cup has traditionally had an impact on media markets and 2026 is no exception with spikes in demand for ad spots in live sport on traditional TV driving up ad costs for brands not just in the host countries but across the globe," said Tom Ashby, Global Lead, Media Services at WFA.

Other trends highlighted by WFA Outlook include:

AI and the effects on paid search: There are signs that AI-generated answers in search results are compressing the pool of commercial search impressions. Fewer impressions available means more competition for those that remain, with inflation on paid search noted in the USA, Germany and Spain. By contrast China has seen the reverse trend thanks to "the continuous enhancement of AI technology and GEO-targeting capabilities are improving the cost effectiveness of search advertising", suggesting that where AI tools are embedded in the ad-buying infrastructure they can moderate rather than inflate costs.

The evolution of TV: Audiences are declining in virtually every major market but advertisers continue to compete for the remaining audience, driving price inflation and ensuring linear TV is the fastest inflating media channel in 2026 (+7.7%). This dynamic is acute in Northern Europe (UK +10%, Germany +10%, Sweden +7%, Netherlands +8%), each of which has teams qualified for the World Cup finals.

Budgets heading towards CTV: Audiences and budgets have continued to be actively migrated towards Connected TV, particularly in Western Europe. Interestingly inflation has not necessarily followed. The expansion of supply across Western markets means the market has been able to mop up additional demand without causing a price spiral, whilst in the US the opposite has happened, where the supply side has moved ahead of advertiser demand, and therefore prices have deflated.

Election in India: India (+9.3% in 2025, +9.5% in 2026) is the fastest-inflating of the major markets. Five State Elections in 2026 are amplifying already strong demand across TV, OOH, Print and CTV. India's influencer market is growing at a rate driven by "popularity dictating demand" in an influencer-literate consumer culture.

The full report is for WFA members only.