Q&A: Brown University political scientist offers insights ahead of midterm elections

Q: If the midterms lead to a change in congressional control, how might that affect policymaking?

If Democrats win one or both chambers, the Trump administration will face far more scrutiny of its actions. Democrats will use their oversight authority - and subpoena power - to launch wide-ranging investigations into alleged corruption and misconduct. A Democratic Senate will also control the confirmation process, allowing it to stall or block the president's executive and judicial nominees. On the legislative side, a Democratic majority in either chamber will end Republicans' ability to pass party-line bills. Trump will retain the power of the veto, so outright repeal of previously enacted Republican laws is unlikely. But Democrats will be in a much stronger bargaining position on must-pass budget bills and may seek to extract concessions, such as reversing some of the Medicaid cuts contained in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Q: Your 2023 book, "Countermobilization: Policy Feedback and Backlash in a Polarized Age,"examines how backlash has been a powerful force in American politics. Can you apply your theory to the current political moment?

My book shows that sharp, negative public reactions to changes in the status quo - whether pursued by conservatives or liberals - have often had important consequences for policy agendas, social movement activity and the distribution of power. Many of these backlashes play out in midterm elections. For example, in the 1966 midterm, just two years after Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory over Barry Goldwater, Republicans gained 47 House seats. Rather than rewarding the Democratic Party for passing Medicare, Medicaid and the Voting Rights Act, voters elected Republicans who opposed much of the Great Society. In 2010, Republicans gained 63 House seats, fueled by voter anger over the sluggish economy and the enactment of the Affordable Care Act, and by the grassroots mobilization of the Tea Party. Obama never regained his legislative momentum during his remaining six years in office.

The closest parallel to the current election may be the 2006 midterm - which George W. Bush famously described as a "thumpin'" - when Democrats won control of both the Senate and the House, installing Nancy Pelosi as speaker, as voters punished the Republican Party for the Iraq War, the government's poor response to Hurricane Katrina and unpopular moves like Bush's push to partially privatize Social Security. Like Trump, Bush had an approval rating in the 30s and was presiding over an unpopular war. The big difference is that polarization is far deeper than it was 20 years ago.

The main pattern my book finds is that politicians often face an electoral penalty for overreaching, imposing visible costs, threatening existing institutional arrangements to which people are strongly attached, or challenging the status and social identities of groups. Today, we see public and interest-group backlash against the Trump administration on many issues, from tariffs and high gas prices (visible costs) to the domestic immigration crackdown (overreach). We also see backlash against the removal of exhibits on slavery and Black history from national parks (a challenge to a group's status and social identity), along with concerns that Trump is using the presidency to advance his personal business interests (a threat to the government's institutional integrity).

Q: You recently led a discussion about the midterm elections at an event for students. What are the political and policy issues that seem to be most important to students right now?

Brown students are highly engaged in this year's midterm elections. Many students see them as an opportunity to express their views on President Trump's performance since he returned to office. We haven't done a student poll, but my sense is that their top concerns include the economy, the cost of living, the war with Iran and government corruption.

The top issues are largely the same ones the general public is paying attention to. But there are some issues that I think have special resonance for Brown students. A big one is housing affordability, especially in cities like New York, Boston and San Francisco. Many students are also concerned about artificial intelligence and how it will affect both their own careers and the nation's future. I've also heard students express concern about the influence of corporations and the wealthy in our political process and about the consequences of climate change.

Q: With the midterms just days away, what is most important for voters to keep in mind?

Whether or not you like the outcome of any particular election, midterms are a vital feature of our constitutional design. The fact that voters get to weigh in every two years - and that presidents cannot cancel or delay midterms when they are sinking in the polls - is a crucial institutional safeguard at a moment of democratic backsliding.

Q: What are you focused on at the Taubman Center this year?

Since becoming Taubman Center director last year, I've focused programming on three main themes. The first is democratic erosion and resilience. We are exploring why democratic norms and institutions have weakened in the U.S. - and what reforms could shore them up and promote civic renewal. The Taubman Center and Brown's Center for Philosophy, Politics and Economics recently co-hosted the John Hazen White Sr. Lecture, in which New York Times columnist David French discussed how fundamentalism perverts politics and threatens the core democratic values of tolerance and pluralism.

Our second theme is inequality, economic opportunity and social policy. As Watson School Dean John Friedman, an economist who studies social mobility, has explained, the American dream is getting harder to achieve : fewer children today grow up to earn more than their parents. Taubman-affiliated faculty are studying what social programs and educational investments could promote upward social mobility - and the conditions under which such measures would generate broad political support.

Our third theme is innovative and effective government. As Taubman Fellow in Public Policy Marc Dunkelman's recent book "Why Nothing Works: Who Killed Progress - and How to Bring It Back" argues, the country faces many pressing challenges today, yet it has become a "vetocracy" in which almost anyone can block action. We are studying why American government is broken - and how it can deliver better results for citizens.

We also have some exciting upcoming events in the works, including an endowed lecture by former Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri.