What Did Intel Stock Investors Miss Before The Run

Investors who held Intel (INTC) stock through the twelve months to October 16, 2026 more than doubled their money. Over that year, Intel saw its sales transition from shrinking to growing rapidly, and management now notes that its AI-driven businesses bring in about 70% of revenue. What had Intel already said and reported about that turn before mid-October 2025?

Intel Cut Costs, Then Sales Stopped Falling

By October 2025, Intel had informed investors that it was cutting costs, and its financial results indicated that sales declines had halted. During the fiscal Q3 2024 call on October 31, 2024, management outlined aggressive steps to lower costs. They noted that most headcount cuts were completed in the quarter ended in September 2024.

The quarterly results that followed demonstrated stabilizing sales. Revenue in the quarter ended December 2024 fell 7.4% from a year earlier. The decline narrowed to 0.45% by the quarter ended March 2025, and revenue ultimately rose 0.2% in the quarter ended June 2025.

Profitability had not yet recovered. Intel posted an operating loss in the quarter ended June 2025. During the July 24, 2025 call, management stated that one-time items and impairments affected headline profit. Intel then unveiled Panther Lake, its first AI PC platform built on 18A, on October 9, 2025. The company announced the product would enter high-volume production at its newest fab in Arizona later that year.

Early evidence of a turnaround was visible across costs, sales, and new products. However, an investor focusing solely on profit would have observed a company still losing money.

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Intel Stock Ran As Sales Returned To Growth

Intel stock returned 141.9% in the twelve months to October 16, 2026, compared to a 16.2% return for the S&P 500. Shares were already climbing before that period began. The stock moved from about $19 to about $37 in the six months prior to October 15, 2025. Over the same twelve months to October 16, 2026, AMD returned 121.6%, while NVIDIA returned 19.4%.

By the quarter ended June 2026, Intel reported revenue of $16.1 billion, up 25.4% from a year earlier. The company posted an operating margin of 12.2%, compared to an operating loss in the same quarter of 2025. On the July 23, 2026 call, management stated that its AI-driven businesses, including record data center growth, made up about 70% of revenue. The trajectory was uneven. Sales rose 2.8% from a year earlier in the quarter ended September 2025, fell again in the quarter ended December 2025, and eventually returned to growth in 2026.

Is Intel's Sales Growth Still Building Today?

The reported results say yes, but the guidance points to slower growth next quarter. The quarter ended June 2026 marked the second consecutive period where Intel's sales growth rate rose. Revenue had dropped 4.1% from a year earlier in the quarter ended December 2025, before climbing 7.2% in the quarter ended March 2026.

Management adopted a more confident tone during its latest call in July 2026. The company forecast revenue between $15.8 billion and $16.8 billion for fiscal Q3 2026. The $16.3 billion midpoint would sit about 19% above the $13.7 billion recorded a year earlier, a slower pace than the 25.4% just reported. Still, executives noted that their outlook for server CPU demand had improved again since the previous report. They also highlighted that supply remains very tight, especially for servers.

The stock retreated from its peak even as sales expanded. Shares closed at $89.85 on October 16, 2026, compared to a high of $140.94 on June 22, 2026.

Intel's year-over-year revenue growth is the key metric to monitor in its upcoming fiscal Q3 2026 report.

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