San Rafael Reviews Sea Level Rise Feasibility Study and Next Steps for Flood Planning

The San Rafael City Council received a presentation on the City's Sea Level Rise Feasibility Study at its June 1 meeting, marking another step in the long-term work to understand and plan for flooding risks in low-lying areas of eastern and southeast San Rafael.

The study evaluated several potential responses to increasing flood risk and found challenges across all options. However, the study presents a clearer picture of the implications, including financial, housing, and implementation considerations. Moving forward, protecting San Rafael from the escalating flood risks will require substantial funding and financing strategies, consensus-building, and partnerships beyond the City.

The City encourages community members to further their understanding of the scale of this challenge and consider the implications of the decisions ahead. Residents are invited to learn more about the study and share their priorities through an online survey available in English and Spanish.

Much of eastern San Rafael was built on historic marshes and filled land that has settled over time, creating a low-lying, bowl-shaped area that is vulnerable to flooding. The area is densely populated and includes homes, businesses, transportation assets, and critical facilities. According to FEMA's National Risk Index, southeast San Rafael is more at risk of flooding than 99% of other census tracts in the country. Recent high tides have already shown how these risks can affect the community.

The feasibility study is part of a broader, community-centered collaborative planning effort by the City in partnership with the County of Marin, Multicultural Center of Marin, Canal Alliance, UC Berkeley, and other partners. The work was supported by funding from the State Coastal Conservancy, Marin Community Foundation, and the Governor's Office of Land Use and Climate Innovation.

Community engagement has been central to the project. Over the past four years, the City and its partners conducted more than 150 presentations, focus groups, surveys, field trips, open houses, workshops, regular meetings of the Steering Committee and Technical Advisory Committee, and other outreach activities in English and Spanish. More than 5,000 people were directly engaged, with many more reached through media coverage in both English and Spanish.

Through that outreach, community members identified several priorities, including emergency preparedness, environmental justice, protecting existing residents and businesses, and building and rebuilding in safer ways. Several of those priorities were woven into the City Council's Three-Year Strategic Plan.

A longer presentation and discussion of this issue is scheduled for August 17, 2026. In the interim, the City is exploring funding and financing opportunities and advancing General Plan 2040 policies related to flooding.

For more information about the sea level rise planning work, visit the Sea Level Rise Collaborative website. Watch a quick video about the project on the City's Youtube page.