Restaurants return to growth in March but hospitality’s cost fears mount

• Restaurants' like-for-like sales rise 2.5% from March 2025
• Pubs' sales only 0.2% up and bars drop 2.6%
• Openings push hospitality's total sales growth above inflation

Britain's restaurant groups finished a difficult first quarter with modest like-for-like growth in March, the new NIQ RSM Hospitality Business Tracker reveals.

The Tracker-produced by NIQ, powered by CGA intelligence, in association with RSM-shows restaurants' sales in the month were 2.5% ahead of March 2025. It is a welcome sign of consumers' readiness to eat out, especially on big occasions like Mother's Day.

Pub groups meanwhile achieved a like-for-like increase of only 0.2% in March, despite a boost from St Patrick's Day celebrations in the middle of the month. It was the first time that restaurants have outpaced pubs for growth for 16 months. Managed bars saw trading fall by 2.6% year-on-year, while there was marginal growth of 0.9% in the on-the-go segment.

When channels are combined, Britain's leading managed hospitality groups achieved like-for-like growth of 0.9% in March. While this is a better performance than either January or February, it is well below Britain's recent rate of inflation. January or February, it is well below Britain's recent rate of inflation.

New openings deliver growth but cost fears build

The NIQ RSM Hospitality Business Tracker also indicates the continued cautious expansion of managed groups. On a total sales basis-including at venues launched by hospitality groups in the last 12 months-their sales rose 4.3%-just ahead of inflation. NIQ's recent Business Confidence Survey with Zonal found nearly two thirds (63%) of leaders of groups with five or more sites planned to increase their estate over the next 12 months.

Despite openings and real-terms growth, hospitality remains overwhelmed by high costs in key inputs like food, drink and labour. There are also fears of renewed inflation as a result of ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East, which is likely to push up prices in many energy-related areas. NIQ's recent Business Confidence Survey-conducted before the start of the conflict-found that fewer than a third (31%) of leaders feel optimistic about the future of hospitality over the next 12 months.

The Tracker's regional breakdown of sales meanwhile indicates a slightly better March for operators in London. Like-for-like sales rose by 0.4% within the M25, and by 1.1% further afield.

NIQ collected sales figures directly from 119 leading managed groups for March's edition of the NIQ RSM Hospitality Business Tracker, which provides authoritative monthly insights into Britain's restaurant, pub and bar sales. Companies participating in the Tracker receive a fuller breakdown of trading that helps to benchmark performance and understand market trends.

To join the cohort, contact Andrew Dean at  [email protected]

Participants in the NIQ RSM Hospitality Business Tracker: Adventure Leisure Ltd, All Star Lanes, Amber Taverns, Anglian Country Inns, Arc Inspirations, Azzurri Group (Ask Italian, Coco di Mama, Zizzi), Barburrito, Barworks, Beds and Bars, Big Fang Collective, Big Table Group (Banana Tree Restaurants, Bella Italia, Chiquito, Frankie & Benny's, Las Iguanas), Bill's Restaurants, Bleecker St Burger, Boisdale Ltd, Boom Battle Bar, Boston Tea Party, Boxpark, BrewDog, Burger & Lobster, Buzzworks Holdings Group, Byron, Chaiiwala, Chance and Counters, Coaching Inn Group Ltd, Comptoir Group Plc, Cote Restaurants, Creams Café, Darwin & Wallace, Dishoom, Evolv Collection, Five Guys, Flat Iron, Fortnum & Mason, Fuller Smith & Turner, Gaucho Grill, Giggling Squid, Glendola Leisure, Gordon Ramsay Restaurants, Greene King (Chef & Brewer, Hungry Horse, Flaming Grill), Hall & Woodhouse, Hawthorn Leisure, Heartwood Collection, Honest Burgers, HOP Vietnamese, Kibou, Kricket, Laine Pub Co, Lane 7, Liberation, Lina Stores, Loungers, Lucky Voice, Marston's, McMullen & Sons Ltd, Megans, Mildreds, Mission Mars, Mitchells & Butlers (Harvester, Toby, Miller & Carter, All Bar One), MJMK Restaurants, Mojo Bar, Mowgli, Nando's Restaurants, Neos Hospitality, New World Trading Company, Nightcap Plc, North Brewing Co, NQ64 Arcade Bars , Open House London, Parogon Pub Group, Pho, Pizza Express, Pizza Hut UK, Popeyes, Portobello Starboard Ltd, Prezzo, Public House Group, Punch Pub Co, Rick Stein Restaurants, Riley's, Rosa's Thai, Roxy Leisure, San Carlo, Sandbox VR, Shepherd Neame, Signature Pubs, Simmons Bars Group, Southern Wind Group (Fazenda), St Austell, Star Pubs & Bars, State of Play Hospitality, Stonegate Pub Co (Slug & Lettuce, Yates', Walkabout, Bermondsey Pub Company), Tasty Plc, TGI Fridays UK, The Alchemist, The Fulham Shore, The Restaurant Group, Thunderbird Fried Chicken, Tonkotsu, Topgolf Ltd, Tortilla, Tossed, Treetop Golf, True North Brew Co, Upham Pub Co, Urban Pubs & Bars, Urban Village Pub Co, Various Eateries (Strada, Coppa Club), Village Hotels, Wagamama, Wasabi, Wells & Co, Whitbread (Beefeater, Brewers Fayre, Table Table), Wingstop, Yard Sale Pizza, Yolk, YO! Sushi, Young's and Yummy Collection.