Spring 2024 Weather Outlook

Spring officially begins at 10:06 p.m. on Tuesday, March 19. However, it's already feeling and looking like it across Texas! Trees and grasses are looking greener, the bluebonnets are blooming and your allergies may be driving you crazy.

The arrival of the new season also begs the question, "What kind of weather can Texas expect?"

One of the biggest factors used when making seasonal forecasts is the presence of El Niño or La Niña. These short-term climate patterns can offer generalizations about upcoming weather patterns, but they should not be used to make specific weather forecasts.

El Niño can result in wetter and cooler weather patterns for Texas and the Southern U.S. Conversely, La Niña can mean warmer and drier weather patterns.

The cycle of moving back and forth between El Niño and La Niña is referred to as ENSO, or El Niño/Southern Oscillation.

This spring, El Niño is ending and the NOAA expects ENSO-neutral conditions to begin as early as April. As a result, we can expect little to no influence from El Niño on weather patterns this spring.

With no influence from El Niño to guide a seasonal forecast, it helps to look at seasonal norms for an area to help determine what the weather might be like. Seasonal norms are determined by taking the average over a period of time for a location.

Below are the average temperatures and precipitation in spring for different locations across Texas. This data is the average over nearly the last 30 years. For example, in DFW, the average high temperature for the month of April is 76 degrees. In Midland, it's 81 degrees.