What Changed For ADT Stock, And What Did Not

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ADT (ADT) shares returned 30.1% from August 1 to October 30, 2026, outpacing the 1.5% return for the S&P 500 over the same dates. The stock jumped on October 29 after ADT announced that Thrive Holdings, a permanent capital holding company, had agreed to buy it in an all-cash deal. So what price did the deal put on ADT's shares?

What Price Did The Deal Put On ADT Shares?

News reports on October 29 said the agreement pays $10 a share in cash. ADT shares rose 33.2% during that session and closed at $9.86 on October 30. By closing just below the offer, the price appears to assume the deal will go through.

The offer followed a weak stretch for the stock. Shares closed at $6.08 on September 30, marking their lowest close of the past year. The stock rose from that low before the deal, including a 7.9% gain on October 28, the day before the announcement.

How The Deal Values ADT's Business

The company said the deal values ADT at about $7.6 billion for its shares and $15.3 billion once its debt is counted. ADT carried $7.69 billion of total debt at the end of June. That debt accounts for roughly half of the larger figure, meaning the company's debt at the deal price is about as large as the value of its shares.

At $15.3 billion, the valuation represents about 9.5 times the $1.61 billion of free cash flow ADT produced in the four quarters to June. Counting only the $7.6 billion paid for the shares, that multiple is about 4.7 times. Shares traded at 1.5 times sales at the October 30 close, near the offer price. Before the deal, the market priced ADT far more cheaply on sales. At the end of September, the stock traded at 0.896 times sales, and only one of the 35 quarter-ends since the end of 2017 recorded a lower price-to-sales ratio.

What The Deal Does Not Change At ADT

While the offer changes the share price, it does not alter how fast the business grows. ADT's revenue grew 2.0% from a year earlier in fiscal Q2 2026, against 6.8% growth in fiscal Q2 2025. Monitoring and related services revenue fell 1% in the latest quarter, a decline management tied to the multifamily business ADT divested in October 2025. Growth came from installation revenue, which rose 17%.

Management expects revenue to grow about 2% in 2026, mainly reflecting installation revenue trends. Monitoring remains the bulk of the business, though: Monitoring and related services made up 84.9% of ADT's revenue in fiscal 2025.

ADT is expected to report its third-quarter 2026 results in November 2026, and revenue from Monitoring and related services will show how the business itself is doing.

How To Act On ADT?

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