BTS Releases New Preliminary Estimates Modeling for key Transportation Metrics, October 2026 Update

The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) developed models to forecast preliminary estimates for key transportation metrics. Using specialized regression-based models, BTS is able to forecast the preliminary estimates for:

• Aviation Enplanements
• Transit Ridership (including Ferry and Rail)
• Amtrak Ridership
• TransBorder Freight
• Vehicle Miles Traveled

By calculating correlations between early indicators and complete historical datasets, BTS provides prompt estimates 3 to 12 months in advance of final audited counts. BTS' estimation models are based on a regression analysis of data in the previous years to the most current. The model's methodology is accurate within 85 percent or better.

The ability to forecast this data will help the Department of Transportation provide more timely transportation information for the entire transportation sector. BTS will have the capacity that will allow for the transportation and travel industry to provide better analysis using near to date estimates which help with turnaround time for various sectors of transportation.