Australia: Grain and Feed Annual

The majority of Australia's winter cropping area is well placed heading into marketing year (MY) 2026/27. Central and southern New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, and Western Australia-accounting for around 90 percent of winter crop production-are entering the planting period with favorable seasonal conditions. Despite rising input costs associated with the Middle East situation, seasonal conditions remain the primary driver of planting decisions and yields. However, forecasts of below-average rainfall in the coming months, combined with the increasing likelihood of an El Niño developing later in 2026, are weighing on production prospects, with wheat and barley production and exports forecast to decline. Sorghum production and exports are also projected to decrease, reflecting the potential onset of El Niño conditions. Rice production and exports are forecast to fall to very low levels in MY 2026/27 due to a further reduction in irrigation water availability, following sharp declines in MY 2025/26.