Anthropic IPO: Buy, Sell Or Hold Nvidia Stock

More on the Anthropic IPO: our Anthropic IPO storyline page collects our pieces on it.

Tonight you might ask Claude to fix a broken formula in the family budget sheet. The answer arrives in seconds, worked out on a chip you will never see. Which chip matters to anyone who owns Nvidia. Anthropic's IPO filing says it runs Claude on four chip families: Amazon 's Trainium, Google's TPUs, and GPUs from Nvidia and AMD.

Everyone knows this week's Nvidia story: a Wednesday close of $173.73, 27.4% below its 52-week closing high. That evening, The Wall Street Journal reported the board was preparing to oust CEO Jensen Huang; shares fell about 8% after hours, and no decision had been announced by early Thursday (see Nvidia Stock At $174: Sell After An 18% Drop?).

Fewer have read where Anthropic's compute money goes. Its filing ties about $254 billion of named deals to Nvidia GPUs, and $155.4 billion of it sits in deals that can be ended on short notice by early 2027. Its Google and Amazon deals cannot. Our answer: hold Nvidia, sized from its worst drop.

That $155 billion is the swing money. In a seven-figure portfolio, index funds hold Nvidia, Alphabet and Amazon side by side, so where it lands moves several holdings. Which way does yours tilt? A free 15-minute call with a Trefis partner firm can map it.

Where Does Anthropic's Compute Money Go?

Source: Anthropic S-1/A, Nov 10; sums are ours. SpaceXAI deals become cancellable on 90 days' notice from early 2027; a $34.9B Lambda deal is terminable now (Anthropic doesn't plan to end it).

Google's TPUs and Amazon's AWS: $392.5 billion of fixed money. Our Nov 2 piece, Anthropic Has Promised $417 Billion For Computing, counted contracts signed January to May in the first filing; the amended one puts total commitments near $900.9 billion.

Is That A Problem For Nvidia's Sales?

Anthropic's contracted 12-month payments, every supplier included, are less than Nvidia's data center sales in a single quarter. Sources: Nvidia's Aug 26 call; Anthropic S-1/A.

Asked in August about labs building their own chips, Huang said he expects them to keep using Nvidia for much of their computing.

Has Nvidia Paid For Its Pain?

Gain per pain: yearly return above T-bills (3.8%), divided by the typical size of down months. Above 1 is good. Source: Trefis, adjusted prices through Nov 11.

So Buy, Sell Or Hold Nvidia This Week?

Size it from the worst drop. With a 1-3% loss limit per stock, a repeat of the 66% fall means holding Nvidia at about 1.5-4.5% of everything you own, index funds included.

Watch dated triggers. Nov 17: Nvidia's revenue against its $108 billion guide. About Nov 18: Anthropic's IPO price. Early 2027: the SpaceXAI deals become cancellable. And any board announcement on Huang.

What it replaces: selling Nvidia on an IPO headline. The risk: other big labs copy the four-chip setup, and more flexible money moves to custom chips.

Why Would Nvidia Buy Into A Customer That Shops Around?

Anthropic's four-chip setup cuts its dependence on any one vendor. Nvidia's answer: own part of the customer. Its $10 billion is about 0.24% of Nvidia's $4.19 trillion market value, a small price for a seat at the table.

What Should You Ask Next?

Want Some Of Your Money Off This Roller Coaster?

Even Nvidia fell 66% at its worst in five years. Swings like this come with owning single stocks. The Trefis Income Solution holds 50 companies chosen to keep paying dividends, each with at least 10 straight years of dividends, yielding about 3x the S&P 500. See if it fits your plan.

For questions about this article or underlying research, email [email protected].