‘Mind the Gap’: Addressing Exclusion in Pakistan’s Social Protection System

Pakistan's National Socio-Economic Registry (NSER) gathers information to help identify and support families who need assistance. It has been instrumental in reaching many households and facilitating inclusion in programs designed to offer timely support, particularly during emergencies.

Initially used for the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP), NSER now supports various social protection and disaster response initiatives. Established in 2010 with data on 25.5 million families, NSER expanded to 35 million families by 2021 and 40 million by 2025, showing consistent coverage improvement.

Exclusion from the NSER leaves a household unable to access an increasing number of social protection programs as well as any support following shocks (such as COVID-19 or floods). This can have a harmful effect on household well-being.

With NSER becoming the backbone of Pakistan's expanding social protection, we examined the completeness of the NSER as inclusion in the NSER is essential for accessing Pakistan's social protection programs and disaster response initiatives. We focused on the poorest households, since the country is slowly transitioning from broad-based subsidies to targeted transfers. We identified gaps in the registry's coverage and explored the reasons behind the exclusion of poor households.

'Mind the Gap'

A World Bank report, "Mind the Gap", evaluates NSER's completeness and inclusivity. Household survey data was collected and, in collaboration with BISP, cross-validated with administrative data, marking the first independent analysis of social registry coverage.

The report reviews how well NSER covers the poorest families as the country moves from general subsidies to specific financial help. It identifies areas where NSER doesn't cover certain households and explains why some are left out. The report also checks if NSER's data is reliable, which is crucial for targeting aid effectively, by looking at how people register and how outdated data affects accuracy. Lastly, it examines how NSER helps in emergencies, like the catastrophic 2022 floods, by providing quick assistance to those affected.

The report was based on a nationally representative household survey, which involved face-to-face interviews with 59,456 households across the four provinces and the Islamabad Capital Territory. The survey was combined with administrative data from the NSER database, providing a robust assessment of the NSER's completeness.

The findings reveal substantial coverage for the NSER. With 84 percent of Pakistani households registered, this stands above the global average of around 41 percent for social registries. While this indicates strong progress, the analysis also identifies areas where inclusion could be further strengthened.

Navigating the Challenges

There is a lack of awareness about the NSER registration process. Nearly half of the unregistered households were unaware of how to register, and only 27 percent knew how to contact the BISP authority.

Location is one of the main determinants of exclusion from the NSER: the probability of exclusion for a household living in Balochistan is 26.2 percent as compared to 10.5 percent if living in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (see figure 1).

Households living farther from the registration centers would have better coverage if they were registered through door-to-door surveys. NSER used to collect data through door-to-door surveys but since 2021, the centers have been established in each district. While this allows on demand registration and data update, which ensures that households who might have been missed in survey sweeps have a chance to register or update their data, it also creates accessibility challenges and can be a barrier for households in areas far from the centers.

Moreover, the registration process can present challenges, sometimes requiring multiple visits to the Dynamic Registration Centers, involving considerable wait times. For some, traveling to centers can be difficult and may entail additional costs, lost wages and the need for accompanying individuals. Some households also face hurdles in obtaining required identification documents (see figure 2).

What's Needed?

Considering ways to improve coverage requires a multi-faceted approach integrating dynamic registration with door-to-door surveys that may help reach poorer and remote communities more effectively. Targeted outreach campaigns and social mobilization efforts can enhance awareness, encouraging more frequent updates and increase inclusion in the NSER. This, in turn, would help reduce coverage gaps and enable quicker reflection of changing household circumstances.

The NSER serves as a foundational element for social protection, supporting BISP's ongoing reforms to reach vulnerable populations more effectively. BISP has introduced mobile vans in areas with lower registration rates, such as Balochistan, and plans to expand registration centers at the Union Council level. This expansion is expected to substantially decrease wait times and travel costs. Mobile personnel will conduct quarterly reviews to update data, enhancing the NSER's reach and quality.

Reducing barriers to NSER registration can strengthen the resilience of Pakistan's most vulnerable households by enabling the timely activation of adaptive social protection systems in the event of disasters.

In response to challenges on data accuracy, the BISP authority has reportedly taken steps to improve the accuracy of data collection. These include providing regular training to data collectors and employing digital tools for real-time monitoring. Efforts are also underway to establish protocols for routine data verification aimed at ensuring data integrity and reducing false reporting. These measures highlight the importance of integrating sound data and evidence into the decision-making processes of government counterparts to support the delivery of effective technical assistance. The 'Mind the Gap' report underscores the importance of ensuring coverage for households from the bottom forty percent, recognizing their heightened vulnerability to shocks and the high risk they face of falling into poverty. Building upon BISP's reforms, a collaborative approach could prioritize reaching remote and marginalized communities, enhancing data accuracy, and facilitating data sharing for informed decision-making.