Pacing the Frontier

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Good Morning,

Dario Amodei published a viral essay on why the AI industry should slow down and embrace regulations, with major rivals like Musk and Altman banding together to agree. Ironically, Trump himself (and other tech figures) disagreed. Guess who loaded up on AI sector calls just hours before Amodei's essay dropped though lmao…

Today's letter is brought to you by F2, the agentic operating system for private markets. Firms on F2 put their entire deal history to work on every new deal. See for yourself and try a demo.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

Learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

• US stocks rebounded on Friday as traders looked past expectations of a Fed rate hike following a calm inflation reading

  • All three major indexes snapped four-day losing streaks

  • Dow snapped its longest losing streak since April

• Average US diesel prices rose past $6/gal for the first time ever

Earnings

• What we're watching this week:

  • Wednesday: Lennar

  • Thursday: Carnival

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• Traders are now pricing in a Fed rate hike after last week's inflation readings. The Fed is set to make its rate decision on Wednesday

• Deposit $10 and get a $20 bonus with code LIT on signup, only on the Polymarket US app

Headline Roundup

• US CPI rose 3.4% YoY (CNBC)

• Trump says US should have world's lowest interest rates (RT)

• Trump suggests taking over Iran oil like Venezuela (RT)

• Altman and Musk rally behind Amodei's call for AI slowdown (WSJ)

• Altman tells staff OpenAI is open to slowing AI development (BBG)

• Trump rejects AI slowdown calls from tech bosses on China threat (WSJ)

• Canada seeks $1T from investors looking for a haven from Trump (FT)

• Wall Street says stay with stocks despite late 90s dot-com vibe (BBG)

• Traders hedging stock rally split on plunge or drift protection (BBG)

• AI-obsessed Wall Street pours billions into inflation-era bets (BBG)

• Execs warn Covid-era PE funds will fall short on promises (FT)

• US convertibles market hits record as AI spending surges (BBG)

• Korea tests global investor appetite with longer trading hours (BBG)

• Situational Awareness returned to stocks with exotic calls on AI names (ES)

• JPMorgan curbed lending to Situational Awareness after losses (RT)

• Chinese chipmakers become billionaires without turning a profit (BBG)

• Atreides Management poached Lone Pine co-CIO Kelly Granat (FT)

• Texas slammed brakes on its data center boom (FT)

• Cluster of Polymarket accounts won big on firms audited by KPMG (WSJ)

• Tesla will unveil Roadster on October 1st (RT)

• Oraclum hedge fund founder charged with lying about returns (BBG)

A Message from F2

Every deal your firm has done should make the next one smarter

A decade of underwriting leaves behind thousands of memos, models, and credit files, and most firms never open them again. F2 structures that history into Institutional Knowledge your team can query on every live deal:

• Institutional Knowledge: every deal you've evaluated, structured and queryable

• Precedents on demand: pricing, terms, and covenants pulled from your own book

• Compounding intelligence: each closed deal sharpens the next

"Epic product. Akin to hiring out an entire additional underwriting team" -VP at a $20B private credit fund.

Compounding intelligence for private markets.

Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

• Apollo is in talks to acquire Johnson & Johnson's orthopedics unit DePuy Synthes at a $20B valuation

• Francisco Partners and KKR agreed to buy a combined 15% minority stake in ‌Italian HR software company TeamSystem from backer Hellman & Friedman at a $9.3B-$12B valuation

• Shareholders are pushing back against CVC's attempt to LBO Italian pharma group Recordati at a $12.5B valuation

• Dutch PE firm Waterland is no longer ​in concert with UK-based Giacom to make ‌a $1.4B offer for UK telecom company Gamma Communications

• Japanese conglomerate Hitachi, Platinum Equity, and others are bidding for a minority stake in Swarco, the traffic solutions provider owned by Austria's Swarovski family, at a potential $1.2B valuation

• GE HealthCare Technologies is ​in talks to acquire radiopharm developer Sofie Biosciences for $1B

• Consumer goods giant Colgate-Palmolive is exploring a sale of some mass-market personal care ‌brands like Softsoap, Irish Spring, and Speed Stick to raise $1B

• Cyprus-based O&G company Energy Holdings will acquire ​deepwater drilling contractor Ventura Offshore in an all-stock deal at a $1B equity value

• CVC is in final talks ​to buy the China ‌business of contact lens maker Ginko International from EQT for $700M-$800M, ​including debt

• $490M-listed UK STEM recruiter SThree rejected an unsolicited all-cash takeover approach by workforce solutions platform Circle8 Group

• Canadian armored vehicle maker ​Roshel is set to acquiring an idled Stellantis car factory near Toronto

Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable

VC

• Discovery Loop, the AI startup of ex-Google chief scientist Jeff Dean, is seeking capital at a $50B valuation

• 1789 Capital-backed Firehawk Aerospace is in talks to raise a $100M-$200M round at a $1.25B valuation led by Rochefort Asset Management

• XDOF, a robot data-training company, is in advanced talks to raise a Series B at a $1.2B valuation led by 8VC

• Piston Technologies, a cardless payments platform connecting commercial fleets and gas stations, raised a $15M Series A led by FPV Ventures

• Bulwark Dynamics, an autonomous landing craft startup, raised a $6.8M seed round from SBI US Gateway Fund, Archetype Ventures, and othrs

• FAZE Security, an offensive security orchestration startup, raised a $6M seed round led by New Era Capital Partners

IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• India rejected conglomerate Tata Sons' bid to stay private, setting stage for an India IPO of the holding company that can unlock over $180B in value

• OpenAI will not IPO this year

• Nvidia is considering investing 10B in Anthropic's $100B IPO

• Oracle founder Larry Ellison canceled his plan to sell $7.5B worth of stock

• Tencent-backed Chinese chipmaker Enflame surged 180% in its trading debut after raising $910M in a China IPO

• Polish defense supplier Ponar Wadowice is weighing a Poland IPO

Debt

• UBS is buying $7.9B of old Credit Suisse bonds in its biggest buyback yet

• The Pentagon is in talks to lend $5B to AI cloud-computing startup Fluidstack in the first AI debt deal for taxpayer money

• German lender Aareal Bank is working on a $2.9B CRE tied to CRE loans

• KKR finalized a $2.1B loan to help fund its $5.7B LBO of medical device maker Integer Holdings

• Blackstone-owned data center operator AirTrunk is in talks to raise $1.6B from banks to prepare for a REIT IPO

• Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group sold $1.3B of perpetual AT1 bonds

• US will lend $100M to telecoms firm Africell, Africa's only American-owned telecoms firm

• Thoma Bravo is making lender concessions in a bid to refinance debt of cybersecurity firm Sophos

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• Senegal raised $180M in a government securities auction in its first sale since announcing and external debt restructuring

• Mercuria Energy and Glencore are in talks with Venezuela about a deal for the country's largest aluminum smelter Venalum

• Citigroup and Office Depot have an unexpected veto over the sale of Cuba-linked Canadian miner Sherritt International Corp

Funds / Secondaries

• UK PE firm ICG is seeking to raise $17.5B for its sixth European private credit fund

• Hollywood talent manager Guy Oseary's Sound Ventures is seeking to raise $300M for its fifth fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• SBF appealed to SCOTUS to overturn his fraud conviction, 25-year sentence, and $11B forfeiture order

• Chinese crypto investor was seller of $260M London mansion

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Exec's Picks

• Shaquille O'Neal. Doug Petno. Andrew Feldman. Manish Sharma. George Lee. There is only one place where you can see all of them speak under one roof: AlphaSummit. Taking place at The Glasshouse in NYC Oct 5-7, hear AlphaSense CEO Jack Kokko share the company's vision and latest product innovations, while stepping into unique breakout sessions featuring Salesforce, Pfizer, Merck, sweetgreen and many more. Register today for your chance to learn first-hand from industry experts, network with exclusive leaders from around the globe and participate in live product sessions.

• Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published a viral essay on why the AI industry should slow down, giving a three-part plan for doing so. Read it here.

Financial Services Recruiting

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.