When Should You Buy D-Wave Quantum Stock

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D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) stock has lost 64.8% over the past twelve months, trailing the 16.5% return of the S&P 500. Even so, investors value the company at about $4.5 billion against $12.4 million of sales over its last four quarters. That pricing looks like a bet on sales jumping once the company ships its systems. Has the fall made D-Wave stock cheap enough to buy, or is it still too early?

Against Sales, D-Wave Costs More Than In Mid-2025

Measuring the stock against its sales shows that the recent decline has not made the shares cheap. Even after the drop, D-Wave stock trades at 361 times its sales over the last four quarters, compared with 3.1 times for the S&P 500. The market priced the stock at 199 times sales in mid-2025. Over the four quarters ending in June 2026, sales fell 44.2% from a year earlier to $12.4 million, so buyers are now paying more for each dollar of sales than they did then. The underlying losses have also widened. At the operating level, D-Wave lost $171 million over the four quarters to June 2026, compared with a $78.7 million loss a year earlier.

Selling entire machines generated much of D-Wave's revenue in fiscal 2025. System sales accounted for $16.2 million of the company's $24.6 million revenue for the year. On the August call, management said it prices its annealing systems at $20 million to $40 million, noting that revenue from a system sale can be booked over several quarters. One system at the low end of that range would bring in more than the company has recorded in sales over the last four quarters. At today's price, buyers are paying for system sales that have not arrived yet.

Does D-Wave Have To Beat Its Own Outlook?

For the September quarter, D-Wave appears to have to do just that. Analysts expect revenue of about $4.4 million for that quarter, compared with $3.1 million in the June quarter. On the August 6, 2026 call, management said it expected third-quarter revenue to be up modestly from the second quarter. Those estimates mean analysts expect D-Wave to do better than its own management described.

Management expects most of the year's revenue to arrive in the fourth quarter, when two annealing quantum computer systems are likely to ship. The company also expects to book some revenue from installing and calibrating those systems in 2027. D-Wave's backlog, revenue under contract but not yet delivered, stood at $40.7 million at the end of June, up from $5.3 million a year earlier. Management expects $23.2 million of that backlog to become revenue within the next 12 months. That is less than two systems at the low end of its price range would bring, so the backlog alone does not cover both fourth-quarter shipments.

D-Wave Reports Its September Quarter In November

D-Wave is expected to report its fiscal Q3 2026 results for July to September in November 2026. After its last six reports, the stock moved between a 6.0% fall and a 4.0% gain over the two trading days that followed. The shares rose after four of those reports and fell after two.

Buying ahead of the report also means owning a stock that has swung far more than the market in past shocks. During the 2025 US Tariff Shock, D-Wave stock fell 29.0%, compared with 19.0% for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

The November 2026 report sets the test. If September-quarter revenue is only modestly above the June quarter's $3.1 million, as management guided, it would fall short of the roughly $4.4 million analysts expect and make buying now look too early. Revenue at or above $4.4 million would show D-Wave doing better than its own management described. Even then, the two systems behind most of this year's expected revenue are not due until the fourth quarter.

Does This Mean You Should Act On QBTS?

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