Premium Spikes, Coverage Loss Will Worsen If Republicans Fail to Act on Tax Credits, CBO Says

Premium Spikes, Coverage Loss Will Worsen If Republicans Fail to Act on Tax Credits, CBO Says

New Analysis Requested by Senate Democratic Leaders Shows Cost of Inaction on American Families' Health Costs and Demonstrates Immediate Harm of Republican Cuts

Text of CBO Analysis (Link)

Washington, D.C. - Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden, D-Ore., Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., Senate Budget Committee Ranking Member Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., and Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee Ranking Member Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. issued a statement after the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the nonpartisan budget scorekeeper, released an analysis of the harm resulting from Republicans' war on health care, including their repeated attacks on the Affordable Care Act (ACA).

"American families are about to have health care sticker shock unless Republicans start working with Democrats to avert a health care catastrophe," Wyden said. "The cost of inaction outlined in this analysis is a stark contrast with Republican leaders' complete lack of urgency to stop the premium spikes and coverage loss facing millions of Americans. It's time to come together to stop the health care carnage that's going to harm families and communities across the country."

"Three times this year, Democrats tried to address the Republican-created healthcare crisis and extend the lifesaving ACA tax credits, and every time, Senate Republicans refused," Leader Schumer said. "Today's CBO report only crystalizes what Democrats have warned if Republicans let these the ACA tax credits expire - millions of Americans will have significantly worse and more expensive healthcare coverage or be kicked off their plans entirely. As millions of Americans prepare for their health insurance costs to go through the roof, Senate Republicans turn to deeper cuts to the ACA marketplace, making it harder to get health insurance and more expensive to keep it. The cruelty is almost unimaginable: the Republicans were okay ripping away healthcare from millions and driving up costs to unthinkable highs, just to provide tax breaks to billionaires and special interests. It is beyond time for Republicans to come to the negotiating table and work with Democrats to find a solution to this upcoming catastrophe."

"15 million Americans are going to lose access to health care due to Republicans' actions. Their 'Big, Ugly Betrayal' Law gutted health care, cut access to food assistance, and exploded the debt by trillions of dollars - all to give tax breaks for billionaires. Republicans in Congress are driving costs up for working families. That includes a huge increase in health care costs as they slash the tax credits that so many families rely on. It's disgraceful, and only makes it harder for families to make ends meet. This is just more of their families lose, and billionaires win agenda," Merkley said.

"Americans already pay, by far, the highest prices in the world for health care. And it is going to get much worse. Thanks to the massive cuts to health care in Trump's 'big beautiful bill,' health insurance premiums will rise, on average, by 75% for 20 million Americans - all so Republicans could give massive tax breaks to billionaires and huge corporations. Working class Americans cannot afford that. These cuts must be rescinded," Sanders said.

The findings from CBO include:

• If Congress fails to act to extend the ACA tax credits before September 30, there will be unavoidable premium spikes and coverage losses in 2026 even if the tax credits are extended at a later date.
• Failure to extend ACA tax credits would cause 3.6 million Americans to lose their health insurance, and increase premiums by 7.6 percent for the over 20 million people who buy coverage on the ACA Marketplace over the budget window.
• Repealing the provisions of the Trump administration ACA rule would protect ACA coverage for 1.8 million people, and reduce out-of-pocket costs for everyone with ACA coverage. CBO's estimates reflect the current court stay on the rule.
• Repealing the ACA cuts in the Republican reconciliation bill would protect coverage for 2.9 million people who buy their own insurance on the ACA Marketplace.
• The Republican attacks on the ACA this year inject uncertainty into insurance markets across the country that will make premiums more volatile and make it more complicated for working people to enroll and remain enrolled in affordable coverage.
• The latest estimate from CBO brings the total Republican health care cuts to nearly $2 trillion, between the reconciliation bill, failing to extend the ACA tax credits, and actions by the Trump administration. 15 million Americans will lose their health insurance, including 7 million losing coverage through the Affordable Care Act. That number could grow pending court action.

The analysis comes as boosted tax credits for Americans who buy health insurance on their own are due to expire at the end of 2025. The time for action is now: open enrollment to purchase health insurance begins on November 1st. If the tax credits are not extended, Americans will see significantly higher premiums and deductibles and many will be deterred from shopping further. Additionally, health insurance companies will begin sending notices about higher premiums to Americans enrolled in their plans once premium rates are finalized in October.

Republicans' refusal to mitigate this premium crisis is amplified by the Trump administration's rulemaking and Republicans' budget bill. Trump's ACA rule, parts of which are currently blocked by the courts, will ensnare Americans who buy their own insurance in red tape, increase their health care costs, and let insurance companies offer worse quality coverage, while CBO's analysis confirms Trumpcare cuts hundreds of billions from the ACA that will bury people seeking affordable health care coverage in red tape.

The full analysis can be found here.

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