Paris Agreement to power politics: The EU's climate leadership in a time of contestation

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A tale of two storm clouds

COP-30 opened under two approaching storm clouds.

The first was the UN environment programme's warning that, despite some progress, the world is almost certain to miss the 1.5ºC target outlined in the Paris Agreement. Even worse, the report concluded that continuing global emissions will push global warming to between 2.6ºC to 3.3ºC. The Paris Agreement moved the dial on combating climate change, but it is proving insufficient to finish the job.

The EU, caught between domestic pushback and hostile geopolitics, should change its tactics to preserve its influence.

The second was the sabotage campaign spearheaded by President Trump, who railed against climate action and dismissed climate change as a 'hoax' and a 'con job' at the UN General Assembly in September. To friend and foe alike, the message from the White House is increasingly clear: climate action means going against US interests.

The EU, caught between domestic pushback and hostile geopolitics, should change its tactics to preserve its influence. Climate targets themselves are useful but have political limits. Meanwhile China is demonstrating how 'mitigation' can be turned into geopolitical strength. Climate diplomacy is shifting away from ambitious targets towards a contest over who will control the clean energies of tomorrow. Will the EU be a contender?

A new geopolitical climate policy

President Trump's absence loomed large in the opening speeches of several leaders, especially from Latin America. However, 160 world leaders also skipped the gathering in the Amazon, with Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi notably among those missing. Meanwhile only 79 countries submitted an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) prior to the summit. Even the EU, once a leader on climate action, only agreed to its NDC the day before COP began. The drop in interest reflects a growing geopolitical reality: the UN process to limit climate change through coordinated action is losing momentum.

Climate politics are instead increasingly defined by domestic energy and trade policy coloured by geopolitical rivalry.

The US, now the world's largest producer of fossil fuels, is seeking to massively ramp up exports. The federal government is thus seeking to cement its own energy and trade dominance at the expense of others under the disguise of fighting climate activism. The interlinking of energy and trade policy was demonstrated when the US threatened tariffs on those supporting efforts to cut global shipping emissions in September, helping to torpedo the deal.

The climate diplomacy of today should be interchangeable with energy security, trade and industrial policy at home.

Meanwhile, China has prioritised domestic energy and trade policy even while recognising the strategic benefits of climate action. Since it became an oil importer in 1993, it has sought alternatives to externally supplied energy. The rise of renewable energies proved an effective way out, as well as an economic opportunity for future industrial dominance. Its extraordinary renewables boom meant that its emissions likely peaked in 2024. The real-term consequence is that China is cementing its position as the world's energy and industrial superpower. In domestic energy policy, China is driving at full speed towards energy abundance, adding 887 GW of solar power in 2024 alone, and it now has 1826 TWh of renewable energy capacity, equivalent to 600 nuclear weapons.

In trade policy, it now makes more money from exporting renewable energies than the US ever did from fossil fuels.

What now for the EU?

The EU is facing mounting domestic political pushback against its climate policy. Slice by slice, policies have been weakened or left unimplemented. It doesn't need to be this way.

Climate change remains, and will remain, one of the major global challenges of current and future generations. It undoubtedly requires a holistic approach from agriculture to forestry and beyond. Nevertheless, energy production and industrial consumption from fossil fuels are responsible for the lion's share of emissions.

The EU can therefore prioritise the extensive rollout of renewable energies in pursuit of energy abundance powered by endless sunshine, wind and water. Supported by widespread electrification, the EU would then enter a virtuous cycle of ever cheaper energy and a more competitive industrial base. The climate diplomacy of today should be interchangeable with energy security, trade and industrial policy at home.

A changing world order free of fossil fuels is therefore in Europe's strategic self-interest.

Much like China, the EU is a major fossil fuel importer. In a world shaped by those who have fossil fuels and those who do not, the EU is very much a 'have not'. It cannot sustain a trade policy that funnels billions of euros into the economies of others, including geopolitical rivals. A changing world order free of fossil fuels is therefore in Europe's strategic self-interest, and not only for its mitigating effects on climate change.

It is also in the interest of a wide range of countries worldwide. Just 15 countries hold almost 80% of the world's oil production. The renewable energy boom, especially in middle income countries and fuelled by cheap Chinese exports, demonstrates the level of interest. The EU should be looking to challenge China's growing dominance in renewable energies and harness this pent-up energy for change across the plural South.

This is the face of the new climate diplomacy. Time for the EU to lead.

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