What’s Going To Happen With Caterpillar Stock Soon

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Including dividends, Caterpillar (CAT) stock has lost 29.7% over the month to November 6, 2026, while the S&P 500 fell 4.9%. Management said on its October 29 call that its adjusted operating margin is running near the bottom of its long-term target range, and that the company would say much more about 2027 in January. Below are the events most likely to move Caterpillar stock in the coming months.

Caterpillar's January Report And Its 2027 Outlook

Caterpillar is expected to report its fiscal Q4 2026 results in January 2027. Management said it will set out its view of 2027 at that time. That outlook matters because orders have run ahead of sales. In fiscal Q3 2026, the company's backlog reached a record $78 billion. That is about as large as the $77.8 billion of revenue Caterpillar booked over the past twelve months.

Management said it expects the margin to start climbing off the bottom of its target range from here, while the company keeps adding capacity to meet demand. The measure to watch in the January 2027 report is the adjusted operating profit margin management expects for 2027.

New Engine Capacity For Power Generation

Caterpillar plans to ship the first units of its restarted 10-megawatt MaK engine for power generation in fiscal Q4 2026, and to keep ramping production through 2027. Those engines go into Power & Energy. With $32.2 billion of revenue in 2025, that is the largest segment.

Management said bringing capacity online is still the main limit on growth in that segment. Demand is there: power generation sales to users rose 75% in fiscal Q3 2026. Management put that growth down to turbines and large engines used in data centers, but also said the team is managing the operational challenges that come with this rapid growth. The measure to watch in the January 2027 report is Power & Energy sales growth.

The Cut In Construction Dealer Inventories

Management expects Caterpillar's construction dealers to hold roughly $1.6 billion less equipment by the end of fiscal Q4 2026. That seasonal reduction compares with a $600 million cut a year earlier. Even as management expects strong growth in what dealers sell to their own customers, it expects Construction Industries sales in that quarter to be similar to a year earlier.

Dealers are not expected to end up short. Management expects their inventories at the end of 2026 to be higher than a year earlier, ahead of strong sales to customers in 2027. The measure to watch in the January 2027 report is the change in Construction Industries dealer inventory.

Can You Hold Caterpillar Stock Through These Dates?

Anyone who owns Caterpillar stock through these dates has to live with swings like the recent ones. From its close on June 30, 2026 to its close on November 5, the stock fell 48.0%. The worst single day during that fall came on October 29, the day of its latest earnings call, when the stock dropped 9.3%.

If a repeat of that 48.0% fall would push you to sell, your stake is too large to hold through these dates. If your stake is small enough that you could sit through such a fall and wait, you could hold it through the January 2027 report.

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