What Could Lift AutoZone Stock After Its Fall

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Shares of AutoZone (AZO) lost 21.6% in the year to October 20, 2026, while the S&P 500 returned 17.1%. Investors buying the auto parts retailer today pay 21.0 times earnings, a multiple slightly below the stock's average of 21.9 across its last 12 fiscal quarter-end readings. So what in AutoZone's business could lift the shares from here, and by how much?

Most Of AutoZone's Upside Comes From Higher Sales

A three-year Trefis scenario based on AutoZone's own figures attributes 85% of the potential gain to higher revenue. A partial net margin recovery toward its recent average accounts for the rest. A change in the P/E multiple provides none of the upside. This revenue flows from drivers fixing their own vehicles and from commercial customers operating repair shops.

Under these assumptions, AutoZone stock would be worth about 27.7% more in three years than at its October 20, 2026 close. The table below compares the company today against the three-year scenario.

Revenue grows 7.2% a year in the scenario, compared with 5.7% over the twelve months to May 9, 2026. These baseline figures reflect the trailing twelve months through May 9, 2026; incorporating the full fiscal 2026 results reported on September 22, 2026-where sales reached $20.3 billion, up 7.4%-would lift the starting baseline accordingly. Trefis sets this pace at one and a quarter times the latest growth rate in its filings data, because that reading beat the average of the previous two. The scenario holds the P/E at today's level. The entire gain would come from the business itself.

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Where Would AutoZone's Extra Sales Come From?

AutoZone has grown slightly faster each year. The latest pace followed 5.2% in the twelve months to May 10, 2025 and 5.0% a year before that. Management said on the September 22, 2026 call that domestic commercial sales reached just under $5.8 billion in fiscal 2026, up just under 11%. Drivers who fix their own cars are visiting stores less often. Management saw these customers putting off repairs and trading down, and domestic do-it-yourself same-store sales fell 0.6% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026.

AutoZone opened 374 stores in fiscal 2026, the most it has opened in a single fiscal year, and expects about 400 in fiscal 2027. Management issued that year's outlook by business rather than as a total revenue figure, expecting domestic commercial sales to grow in the high single to low double digits. AutoZone has also cut its fiscal 2028 store target to 430 from roughly 500 as it slows expansion in Brazil.

How Would AutoZone's Upside Shift Under Other Assumptions?

The table outlines the three-year upside when one assumption changes and the other two stay as in the scenario.

AutoZone's net margin starts below its own recent level, compared with an average of 13.9% at the 12 fiscal quarter ends from May 2023 to February 2026. The margin has fallen each year. It dropped from 14.6% in the twelve months to May 4, 2024 to 13.6% a year later, and to 12.4% in the twelve months to May 9, 2026.

Under these assumptions, three years of owning the shares would return nothing if revenue shrank 1.2% a year, compared with growth of at least 5.0% in each of the last three twelve-month periods. It would also return nothing if the net margin slipped to 10.1%, compared with 12.4% in the twelve months to May 9, 2026. A P/E of 16.4, against today's 21.0, would leave the same result.

AutoZone's domestic commercial sales growth is the figure to watch at its next report, expected on or around December 7, 2026.

Is Too Much Of Your Wealth Riding On One Stock?

Any gain in AutoZone from here depends on the business delivering more. When one position grows into a large part of your wealth, a sharp fall can hurt your whole plan, and selling to spread the money out can bring a large tax bill. Our partner advisory firm offers a free strategy review of ways to protect a concentrated position and unwind it with less tax.

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