What 35 Years of Watching New Jersey’s Climate Reveals

A longtime Rutgers expert explains what decades of data show about the state's warming climate, changing storms and need for public understanding

For 35 years, David Robinson, the New Jersey state climatologist and a Distinguished Professor of Geography in the School of Arts and Sciences, has helped New Jersey understand its weather and climate.

As he retires from his state climatologist role, he reflects on what decades of data reveal about a warming state, why extreme weather events such as Superstorm Sandy in 2012 and Hurricane Ida in 2021 changed the conversation and why climate information matters to public safety.

State climatologists serve as the state's primary resource for climate data and research, providing analysis and information to public and private sectors. The office was established at Rutgers' Cook College (now the School of Environmental and Biological Sciences) in 1979 by then-Gov. Brendan Byrne to centralize climate-related activities and expertise within the state.

At age 11, future New Jersey state climatologist David Robinson was already keeping weather logs. A page from one of his first at age 9, a 1964 record, appears at right.

How has New Jersey's climate changed on your watch?

Underlying everything we have seen in my 35 years as state climatologist is that the state is getting warmer. It is undeniably getting warmer.

New Jersey has not necessarily become less snowy in terms of annual snowfall. But more of our snow is coming in bigger storms, just as more of our rain is coming in bigger storms. It is not necessarily raining more often, but when it rains, it pours. We have also seen offshore waters warming, and New Jersey is one of the fastest-warming states. Since we are the most densely populated state in the country, those changes matter.

Why is New Jersey such a fascinating place to study climate?

The simplest answer is four seasons, and sometimes a couple of them in the same day. We get a taste of almost everything in New Jersey, from Arctic cold to tropical heat, from hurricanes to blizzards. We tend not to get the worst of the worst, but we are a sampler.

We are strategically located in the middle latitudes, about halfway between the pole and the equator. We have a continent to our west and the ocean right next door. I often call it a continental-ocean, polar-tropical squeeze play. That is why we can move so quickly from one weather pattern to another.

What do people need to understand better about climate?

Climate change is not an overnight sensation. It can be gradual, and it does not happen in a straight line. That can make it difficult for people to see clearly in their daily lives.

My approach has always been to focus on understanding. I try to explain what the data show and why it matters, while respecting that people come to the conversation with different levels of knowledge and different concerns.

What did thousands of media interviews teach you about how people understand weather?

People have some level of knowledge, but they often do not appreciate the full impact weather and climate have on every aspect of society. It affects transportation, the economy, tourism, emergency management, agriculture, the environment and daily life.

People know weather affects them because they feel it. But they may not appreciate its breadth. Weather affects refrigerator trucks coming up the Turnpike to bring food into the region. It affects Shore rentals, boardwalk tourism, beach badge sales and public safety. Most of the time, weather is not at the top of everyone's mind. It is just there, underneath. Then a Sandy or an Ida comes along, and suddenly it rises to the top.

Why does Sandy remain such an important storm in your career?

Downed trees block a roadway after a storm. David Robinson says New Jersey is seeing more rain and snow arrive in larger events, underscoring the growing importance of clear warnings and public preparedness.

Sandy was transformative for the state, not just environmentally but economically and socially. The Jersey Shore is part of our psyche here in New Jersey.

I was live on NJTV at 11 o'clock the night of Sandy, sitting in my blacked-out house with two little flashlights on me. My laptop still had power, and I had an air card that allowed me to stay connected. Our weather network was still reporting. I had seen a 90-mile-an-hour wind gust at our Seaside Heights Rutgers NJ Network station and NOAA tidal information at Sandy Hook until the tide gauge was washed out. I was very fearful about what we would see when the sun rose the next morning because the data were still coming in.

What did storms like Sandy and Ida reveal about public safety?

You can gather the best data, and scientists can know what is going on. You can convey that to specialists and emergency managers, and the National Weather Service can put out warnings. But if that information does not reach the public, or if the public does not know how to respond, there can be serious consequences.

That chain matters. First there is the data. Then there is the processing of the data by specialists. Then there is getting the information to the public. Then the public has to know what to do with it. The goal is always to help people make safer, better-informed decisions.

Why has snow been such a central part of your scientific life?

Snow is a vital part of the climate system. The question often is, is it cold because it snowed, or did it snow because it is cold? The answer, of course, is yes.

Whether the ground is snow-covered affects local climate and can affect the positioning of storms. But snow is also a reservoir for a huge percentage of the global population. I have also used snow cover as a way to monitor climate change, including through my contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

What do you most want people to understand about our climate system?

I want people to have an appreciation for the natural world around them and the influence it can have on their lives. In the state climate office, we provide information to help people make decisions. We do not make decisions for them.

I hope I have left people more aware of the role weather and climate play in our lives, and I hope they use that awareness to make a difference.

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