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Good Morning,

Barclays eased an RTO mandate after staff backlash, Starbucks fired its ESG team, Polymarket named an ex-Goldman partner to lead institutional growth, Anthropic's IPO prospectus was leaked, and Trump signed an order to to rename AI to SI at a high-profile White House lunch with Silicon Valley titans.

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Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

Learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

• All three major US indexes fell for a second-straight day as rising yields continued to bite

• US 30Y yield rose to 5.6% to its highest in 24 years

• Munis are down 4.7% MTD on track for its worst month in 40 years

  • Munis trading volume surged to the highest since 1995

• US 10Y-WTI correlation hit 65%, the strongest in 36 years

• Euro fell to a 16-month low

Earnings

• CarMax beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates as the firm sold more vehicles at higher prices in a positive sign for its turnaround efforts (WSJ)

• What we're watching this week:

  • Today: Micron

  • Thursday: Nike, Accenture

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• OpenAI delayed the launch of Astra 6.1 due to "safety concerns." Totally nothing to do with Anthropic's threat and falling behind right before IPO season

• Deposit $10 and get a $20 bonus with code LIT on signup, only on the Polymarket US app

Headline Roundup

• Trump hosted 30 tech leaders for his "Super Intelligence Luncheon" (ES)

• Trump calls for 'tremendous self-regulation' as execs sign 'morally binding' pact at White House (NYP)

• US consumer confidence is at a 12-year low on labor market fears (RT)

• Battered bond market braces for a new era of interest rates (RT)

• Two-thirds of investors plan to raise infrastructure and PE allocations (ALT)

• Treasury threatens crackdown on Wall Street tax-avoidance strategies (FT)

• SEC sends 'critical' reminder on hard-to-value private assets (BBG)

• Oura joins wave of IPO delays as markets turn shaky (RT)

• ExodusPoint joins hedge funds partnering with Anthropic (BBG)

• European banks launch in-house ETFs to compete with US funds (FT)

• Nvidia turns to insurers to spread the risk of AI build-out (FT)

• Polymarket named ex-Goldman partner Lisa Mantil as head of institutional growth (BBG)

• Anthropic's leaked IPO prospectus shows worrying financials (RT)

• Anthropic warns of 'existential risks to humanity' in IPO prospectus

• Anthropic's $520B AI buildout hinges on deals that cannot be canceled (RT)

• OpenAI ARR nears $70B (RT)

• OpenAI launched Dots AI agents at DevDay event (CNBC)

• Barclays eased RTO mandate after staff backlash (FT)

• SIG and Citadel will settle lawsuits against alleged insider traders (BBG)

• Starbucks fired ESG team in reversal of climate commitments (FT)

• Manchester City artificially inflated financials by $1B (FT)

• Spain seeks to ban 'vulture funds' from housing market (FT)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

• Italian lender UniCredit is preparing to seize control and overhaul the board of $50B-listed German peer Commerzbank by January

• French lender Credit Agricole is studying an acquisition of $28B-listed Italian lender Banco BPM, in which it already owns 30%

• $4.75B-listed Piper Sandler is in talks to merge with $1.6B-listed Perella Weinberg Partners

• Israel objected to the $4.2B sale of ZIM Integrated Shipping Services to Germany's Hapag-Lloyd because of Saudi and Qatari holdings in the firm

• Novo Nordisk acquired rights to an experimental obesity pill from China's Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals in a $2.6B deal

• Salesforce will acquire AI market research firm Listen Labs for $2B

• Pharma giant AstraZeneca is investing $2B in Summit Therapeutics to collaborate on a promising new cancer medicine

• Danish pharma firm H Lundbeck expressed interest in acquiring $1.8B-listed commercial-stage drugmaker Xeris Biopharma

• Shares in $1.5B UK-listed metallurgical engineering firm Vesuvius surged 32% after RHI Magnesita made a cash-and-stock takeover offer with backing from activist Cevian Capital

• Activist Ancora Holdings raised its cash bid for H.B. Fuller's building adhesives unit to $1.4B

• Bain Capital will take a 25% stake in AI enterprise construction platform Kahua at an over $1B valuation

• Norwegian family office Stokke Industri is weighing a sale of Norwegian vacuum sanitation systems group Jets at a $530M valuation

• Spanish PE firms Asterion Industrial Partners and Teras Capital are exploring strategic options for their Olin Telecom JV

• Germany will block the sale of logistics firm Zippel to Chinese state-owned shipping giant COSCO

• Activist investor Flashlight Capital Partners urged Japan's Secom to double its interest in Korea's Samsung-backed building security firm S-1 Corp. and Taiwan Secom, roping in a new party after its earlier bid to acquire an S-1 stake was rejected

• Power developer Exus Renewables acquired four large-scale solar projects in Louisiana and Wisconsin from ibV Energy Partners to supply data center customers

VC

• OpenAI is looking to raise $30B at a $1.4T valuation in a fresh funding round

• Kalshi is in advanced talks to raise $1B at a $40B valuation from Tiger Global and Dragoneer

• KKR and Nvidia-backed Helix Digital Infrastructure, the AI data center firm of ex-AWS CEO Adam Selipsky, raised $1B from Samsung and affiliates

• Dutch defense startup Onodrim is in talks to raise a $230M round at a $1.1B valuation led by Lux Capital

• Modal Labs, an AI inference infrastructure provider, raised $750M in a funding round at a $15.75B valuation led by Accel

• Hertha Metals, a steel company producing high-purity iron and steel, raised a $133M Series A co-led by Khosla Ventures and Doerr Capital

• Jeeves, a stablecoin-native banking platform for global enterprises, raised a $110M Series C led by CoinFund

• Efficient Computer, an energy-efficient processor company, raised a $97M Series B at a $650M valuation led by TQ Ventures

• IPercept, a Swedish machine fitness tracker startup, raised a $16.5M Series A co-led by Isogon Ventures and 2150

• Atomic, a supply chain startup, raised a $12.5M Series A led by Klass Capital and Madrona

• Rig Security, an identity protection platform, raised a $12M seed round led by Ten Eleven Ventures and Brightmind Partners

Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable

IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• $50B-listed Chinese printed circuit board maker Dongshan Precision Manufacturing is seeking to raise $2B-$3B in its Hong Kong listing

• Swedish smart ring maker Oura delayed its $2.2B US IPO despite it being 4x oversubscribed

• RoboTechnik Intelligent Technology, Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic, Direct Drive Tech, and Red Avenue New Materials Group raised a combined $1.8B in Hong Kong listings

• Indian industrial machinery manufacturer Ace Designers begun talks for a $400M India IPO

• Angola raised $225M from a 34% stake sale in Standard Bank's local unit; South Africa-based Standard Bank raised its stake in the Angolan unit from 51% to 75%

Debt

• Paramount Skydance kicked off a $32B investment grade bond sale, the largest portion of a syndicated $52B debt package, for its $110B acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery

• Banks led by Citigroup attracted $11.5B of demand for the $7.5B loan sale meant to fund Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery

• Bulgaria sold $2.5B of bonds to plug a budget deficit

• India's Sun Pharmaceutical Industries plans to raise $1B in local bonds to partly fund a ‌bridge loan it took to acquire US healthcare firm Organon for $12B

• Indian drugmaker Gujarat Themis Biosyn raised $60M in private credit from Orion Capital Asia to back its purchase of Japanese peer MicroBiopharm Japan

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• Policyholders of struggling life insurer PHL Variable Insurance sued PE owner Golden Gate Capital for self-dealing and mismanaging the firm to the point of possible liquidation amid a $2.2B shortfall

• Creditors owed $1B by bankrupt Florida high speed rail Brightline agreed to join a deal to restructure the firm's balance sheet

Funds / Secondaries

• Carlyle raised $2.3B for its second infrastructure credit fund

• UK investment firm Cheyne Capital raised $4B for its ninth European real estate credit strategy

• Private markets investor Siguler Guff raised $3B for its US small buyout strategy

• Schroders Capital raised $1.3B for its fourth flagship PE co-investment fund

• Clearlake Capital raised $1B backed by stakes in its private market funds after rejigging the collateral mix

• Volition Capital raised $950M for its sixth growth equity fund

• UK's Crane Venture Partners raises $485M across four funds to build a global seed investment platform

• Fidelity Investments raised $450M for its second real estate credit opportunities fund

• Lower MM PE firm Rising Point raised $330M for its debut fund

• VC Firm Friends & Family raised $300M for its fourth fund

• Infra-tech-focused VC Zero Infinity Partners raised $156M for its second fund

• Israeli women-led defense tech VC Protego Ventures raised $125M for its debut fund

• Investment firm Hamilton Lane plans to launch its third infrastructure secondaries fund

Apptopia's Chart of the Week

• Muse is taking off with consumers, growing faster from launch than core competitors did. Including Google Play data, Muse has hit 1M+ DAUs

• Average time spent per DAU is already in-line with ChatGPT

Generate alpha from mobile consumer signals with Apptopia

Upcoming Events

The Litquidity x NEXUS Capital Cup | Saturday, October 17 | NYC

For the second year running, we're bringing together NYC's best on NEXUS Golf Club's state of the art simulators on Saturday, October 17 for a shot at over $9,000 in prize value and NYC glory. What's at stake: a $500 cash prize, a six month membership to NEXUS with $150 in F&B rewards, twosomes to Manhattan Woods Golf Club, a TrueSpec Club Fitting, and a plethora of other prizes listed on our @palmandparkevents Instagram + event page.

Whether you want to grab your favorite golf buddy, be matched with a partner, or simply watch and mingle, there's gonna space for you. Last year's tournament was epic so we hope to see y'all this time around!

RSVP details here

Exec's Picks

• Japan's economy has entered a significant new phase and global investors continue to spend more time in the region. After 30 years, Japan has moved from experiencing deflation to inflation, and from stagnation to a booming economy. Wages are up, businesses are increasing returns on invested capital creating meaningful shareholder value, while Japanese households are shifting money from deposits to investments. Read how investors are taking notice.

• In case you're bearish, watch this video of SpaceX's starship literally shooting satellites out of itself while in orbit.

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.