Is NVIDIA Stock A Buy Right Now

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Between October 6 and November 4, 2026, NVIDIA (NVDA) stock fell 16.3% while the S&P 500 lost 1.6%. Anyone thinking of buying wants to know whether that drop is a chance or a warning. The answer depends less on demand, which management says is larger than NVIDIA can supply, than on what meeting that demand will cost the company. First, how strong is NVIDIA's business right now?

NVIDIA's Sales Growth Has Sped Up Four Quarters Running

The latest results show a very strong business. Revenue rose 105.9% from a year earlier to $96.2 billion in fiscal Q2 2027, the quarter that ended July 26, 2026. Growth had been 62.5% in fiscal Q3 2026, and it accelerated in each quarter after that. That 62.5% was itself up from 55.6% in fiscal Q2 2026. NVIDIA also keeps an unusual share of its sales as profit. Its operating margin over the last twelve months was 65.2%, against 18.7% for the S&P 500.

Investors pay 25.1 times NVIDIA's earnings over the last twelve months, against 22.8 for the S&P 500. A multiple only a little above the broader market reflects profits that more than doubled in a year. Net income over the last twelve months was $193 billion, against $86.6 billion a year earlier. If profits fell back, the same share price would mean a higher multiple.

What Will NVIDIA's Next Round Of Growth Cost?

Management's own forecast indicates the next round will cost more than the last. On the August 26, 2026 call, management said memory prices had risen more than it expected and were still heading higher. Gross margin was 75% in fiscal Q2 2027, and the company expects 74%, plus or minus 50 basis points, in fiscal Q3. Management expects the margin to reach its low in fiscal Q4 at 71% to 72%. In fiscal 2028, it expects 72% to 73% as price increases NVIDIA has already made take effect.

Management's account suggests demand is the smaller question. The company forecasts revenue of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, for fiscal Q3 2027. For fiscal 2028, management expects growth of about 70%. It said customers' own forecasts point to faster growth than that, with supply holding NVIDIA back.

NVIDIA is also using its own balance sheet to support some of that demand. Management said demand from AI labs it expects to back this way will make up roughly a quarter of its business in fiscal 2028, and that it will provide credit support for nearly 2 gigawatts of compute for one lab. Management said it knows some will call this circular financing, and that it sees the arrangement differently.

In fiscal Q2 2027, NVIDIA's cash from operations was $24.1 billion, well below its net income of $59.7 billion. Management said inventory rose to $32 billion in the same quarter ahead of the Vera Rubin launch, and some large customers were given longer to pay.

How Far Has NVIDIA Stock Fallen In Market Shocks?

The stock has fallen further than the S&P 500 in four of five recent market shocks. In the 2025 US tariff shock, NVIDIA fell 32%, against 19% for the index. The 2023 regional banking crisis was the exception, when NVIDIA fell less than the index. The deepest fall came in the 2022 inflation shock and Fed tightening, when NVIDIA lost 63% against 24% for the S&P 500.

You can hold through falls like these more easily if gross margin settles where management expects and the sales NVIDIA backs with its own balance sheet turn into cash. When NVIDIA reports in November 2026, gross margin against the guide management gave for fiscal Q3 2027 is the number to watch.

How Much NVIDIA Do You Already Own?

If you own an S&P 500 or Nasdaq fund, you already own NVIDIA, alongside the same few giants that lead those funds. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio takes a different route: 30 quality companies in equal weight, so no single stock dominates. Since its inception in September 2020 it has returned 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap and Russell 2000.

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