Harvest is in full swing with some producers finishing up and others moving full steam ...

Harvest is in full swing with some producers finishing up and others moving full steam ahead. The government moving anything but full steam ahead with the shutdown has created a gap in normal harvest data. Without the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) from the USDA, very little is known for certain about how this year's corn and soybean harvest will compare to estimates. The September WASDE forecasted corn yields at around 186.7 bushels per acre with a total of 16.8 billion bushels from production. Soybeans were projected at around 4.3 billion bushels and the yield around 53.5 bushels per acre.

This is a huge year in terms of grain being harvested and ready to market. However, demand may struggle to match supply. Beginning stocks were higher in both commodities and the price to raise a bushel of either has increased year over year. An uncertain trade market has slowed export demand. And China, normally the biggest consumer of U.S. soybeans has not appeared in this year's market. The WASDE forecasts exports were reduced by 20 million bushels in September and ending stocks increased to around 300 million bushels.

This leaves producers with the decision to market and sell grain with the risk that prices are potentially lower than they may be in the future, or they can choose the cost of storing grain in hopes of higher prices and a better basis. The USDA forecasts season-average corn price received by producers at around $3.90 and season-average soybean price received by producers at $10.00.

The graphic to the right from American Farm Bureau's Market Intel "Grain Storage Remains Tight" by Faith Parum shows grain storage as a surplus or deficit. Nebraska is in a deficit of around 374 million bushels. Storing grain as mentioned before carries risk and cost. If prices drop even further, producers lose even more. Interest rates, labor, and energy are all costs associated with grain storage. These added costs only widen margins. With a lack of available storage this year under current estimates, storing grain may not even be an option for some producers. Once the government reopens and reports start to come in, production estimates may be altered, and storage may ease up or tighten even further.