New Year, new decisions

Professor of Psychology Harvey Langholtz is fascinated with how humans make decisions. (Photo by Stephen Salpukas)

Steve Jobs famously dressed in the same simple uniform on repeat - a black turtleneck, blue jeans and sneakers - to remove one decision from his busy agenda. While this strategy might not be scientifically proven, the intention behind it makes sense.

In today's information- and choice-rich world, everyone is looking for ways to streamline decision-making. To explore how humans make decisions, W&M News sat down with Professor of Psychology Harvey Langholtz.

Langholtz joined the faculty at W&M in 1993. His work focuses on understanding the analytical and psychological underpinnings of decision-making. In his fourth and most recent book, "Making Decisions: Analytics, Cognition, and Application," Langholtz examines the mathematical formulas and cognitive processes that govern decision-making, bringing these approaches together with real-world examples. He will speak at the next College of Arts & Sciences Faculty Research Forum, Monday, Feb. 16, at 4 p.m. in Tucker 127.

The interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Q: How do researchers study decision-making?

A: There are two academic disciplines that focus on decision-making. One is operations research and the other is psychology. Operations research provides what we call prescriptive models - mathematical solutions to common problems where the quantities are known. Psychology considers decisions as cognitive processes and explains human decision-making with descriptive models.

In many ways, mathematical models, especially probability, undergird people's cognitive decision-making. It was my goal in writing this book to bridge and link these two approaches - the analytical and the cognitive.

Q: What would be an example of people using analytics and math in decision-making?

A: One example I used in my book was the decision by the captain of the Titanic the night of April 14, 1912. He'd heard the radio reports of iceberg sightings in the area, but he knew the probability of a collision was small based on his past 25 years of experience as a sea captain. So, he made his decision to sail on into the night. He didn't actually calculate the probability of colliding with an iceberg, but he estimated the likelihood to be low enough so as not to warrant falling behind schedule and missing the advertised arrival time in New York three days later. Unfortunately, the worst-case scenario did happen, resulting in the ultimate tragedy.

While people might not break out a pencil and paper to calculate the probability of something happening, we do weigh our decisions in terms of chance, with its basis in math.

Q: In addition to this analytical side, you also write about the cognitive side to decision-making. What does that bring into the picture?

A: Yes, this field of study examines how people think about decisions from a psychological perspective. How do people weigh risk? How do they weigh chance? How do they weigh gains and losses? How do we view the present versus the future? How does memory impact us? These are among the cognitive processes people consider - whether they realize it or not - when they make a decision.

Q: Can you give an example?

A: Let's say I tell someone that if I flip a coin and it lands on heads, I'll give them $1,000. But if it lands on tails, they give me $1,000. Will they take that bet? Most people won't, even though the odds are 50/50 either way. Cognitive psychology explains this phenomenon by the phrase, "losses loom larger than gains." In other words, people weigh a loss more than a gain of an equal amount. This is how insurance works. People are willing to pay insurance premiums that are more than they are likely to receive over time. But they are OK with that because they'd rather protect against the risk of a huge loss.

Q: What are some factors that might influence decision-making in a negative way?

A: Fear is a big one. We've all heard of fear of missing out, FOMO, which motivates us to make decisions based on what others are doing around us. But fear can also drive us to inaction. One example of this is fear of better options or FOBO. In this situation, people have a hard time making a decision because they are worried that a better option exists that they have yet to discover. This might manifest as not responding to a friend who wants to make weekend plans because something else might come up or, more seriously, not moving forward in a relationship because you think someone else out there might be a better match.

Allowing fear to hijack your decision-making is an ineffective strategy that often leads to negative consequences. That friend will get annoyed and make plans without you; the person who might possibly be the love of your life will lose interest as you seem unready to commit. So, when you're about to make a decision or delay in making one, ask yourself, "Am I being motivated by fear?"

Q: How can people who struggle with indecision overcome it?

A: First, let's differentiate between indecision and indecisiveness. There are often situations where we are faced with a decision, but we realize we need more information before we can make an intelligent choice and commit. This is normal, and in such cases, seeking additional information is usually a good approach.

However, this is different from indecisiveness. Indecisiveness is a personality trait. People who are indecisive will weigh every decision over and over and will even continue to rethink a decision after it has been made and they've committed to a course of action. Indecisiveness can be rooted in perfectionism and an effort to be a people-pleaser when that may not be possible.

Q: So how do you overcome indecisiveness?

A: First, keep in mind that it is not possible to make every decision in life perfectly and that perfectionism is an unattainable goal.

Nobel Laureate, Herb Simon, originated the concept of maximizing vs. satisficing. People who seek to maximize will spend the time and effort to try to make every decision perfectly and produce the single best and maximum outcome. People who satisfice - a portmanteau formed by blending the words satisfy and suffice - will find a satisfactory solution that meets their needs and they will then move on to the next decision.

People who are indecisive may need to accept that it's often not worth the time and effort to maximize. It is often better to satisfice, make your choice, move ahead and not look back.

Q: What is different about the way artificial intelligence makes decisions vs. how people make decisions, and are there advantages to human-centered decision making vs. AI?

A: Imagine for a moment that you could download an app to your mobile phone that would make decisions for you. All that the app would require would be for you to input the details of the decision, and it would then tell you what to do. Would you be comfortable with that? Maybe for some very small decisions, but certainly not for the important ones.

AI has the ability to very quickly search the internet and come up with answers to clearly defined questions. But can AI really take into account your individual wishes, tolerance for risk, reaction to gains and losses or factor in your individual core values? AI can't do that yet. It's impossible to predict what AI may be capable of in the future, but for now only individual humans can make the decisions that fully reflect their own very individual thoughts and feelings.

Q: Final advice for people trying to make better decisions?

A: There's no one standard approach to all decisions, and even within that, everybody is different. Think about your own priorities, your own preferences. Think clearly through some of the math, what is the likelihood of your decision resulting in X or Y and which result do you prefer? Try to gather all the information that you can. Make your decision and then don't look back.

Catherine Tyson, Communications Specialist

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