Ceres Orion LP

11/10/2025 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 11/10/2025 13:51

Quarterly Report for Quarter Ending September 30, 2025 (Form 10-Q)

Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

The Partnership does not have, nor does it expect to have, any capital assets. The Partnership does not engage in sales of goods or services. Its assets are its (i) investment in the Funds, (ii) redemptions receivable from the Funds, (iii) its equity in trading account, consisting of unrestricted cash, restricted cash, net unrealized appreciation on open futures contracts, net unrealized appreciation on open forward contracts, options purchased at fair value and investment in U.S. Treasury bills at fair value, if applicable and (iv) interest receivable. Because of the low margin deposits normally required in commodity futures trading, relatively small price movements may result in substantial losses to the Partnership, through its investment in the Funds and direct investments. While substantial losses could lead to a material decrease in liquidity, no such illiquidity occurred during the third quarter of 2025.

The Partnership's/Funds' investment in futures, forwards and options may, from time to time, be illiquid. Most U.S. futures exchanges limit fluctuations in prices during a single day by regulations referred to as "daily price fluctuation limits" or "daily limits." Trades may not be executed at prices beyond the daily limit. If the price for a particular futures or option contract has increased or decreased by an amount equal to the daily limit, positions in that futures or option contract can neither be taken nor liquidated unless traders are willing to effect trades at or within the limit. Futures prices have occasionally moved the daily limit for several consecutive days with little or no trading. These market conditions could prevent the Partnership and/or the Funds from promptly liquidating their futures or option contracts and result in restrictions on redemptions.

There is no limitation on daily price movements in trading forward contracts on foreign currencies. The markets for some world currencies have low trading volume and are illiquid, which may prevent the Partnership and/or the Funds from trading in potentially profitable markets or prevent the Partnership and/or the Funds from promptly liquidating unfavorable positions in such markets, subjecting them to substantial losses. Either of these market conditions could result in restrictions on redemptions. For the periods covered by this report, illiquidity has not materially affected the Partnership's or the Funds' assets.

Other than the risks inherent in commodity futures, forwards, options, swaps and other derivatives trading and U.S. Treasury bills and money market mutual fund securities, the Partnership and the Funds know of no trends, demands, commitments, events or uncertainties at the present time that are reasonably likely to result in the Partnership's or the Funds' liquidity increasing or decreasing in any material way.

The Partnership's capital consists of the capital contributions of the partners as increased or decreased by realized and/or unrealized gains or losses on trading and by expenses, interest income, subscriptions and redemptions of Redeemable Units and distributions of profits, if any. The Partnership's primary need for capital resources is for Futures Interests trading.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, the Partnership's capital decreased 12.7% from $276,255,829 to $241,070,828. This decrease was attributable to redemptions of 14,096.7160 Class A limited partner Redeemable Units totaling $43,893,206, redemptions of 613.6370 Class Z limited partner Redeemable Units totaling $803,429, which was partially offset by subscriptions of 1,447.8420 Class A limited partner Redeemable Units totaling $4,435,000, subscriptions of 79.8200 Class Z limited partner Redeemable Units totaling $100,000 and a net income of $4,976,634. Future redemptions can impact the amount of funds available for investment in subsequent periods.

Other than as discussed above, there are no known material trends, favorable or unfavorable, that would affect, nor any expected material changes to, the Partnership's capital resource arrangements at the present time.

Off-BalanceSheet Arrangements and Contractual Obligations

The Partnership does not have any off-balancesheet arrangements, nor does it have contractual obligations or commercial commitments to make future payments, that would affect its liquidity or capital resources.

Critical Accounting Policies

The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires the General Partner to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities and disclosures of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements and the reported amounts of income and expense during the reporting periods. The General Partner believes that the estimates utilized in preparing the financial statements are reasonable. Actual results could differ from those estimates. The Partnership's significant accounting policies are described in detail in Note 2, "Basis of Presentation and Summary of Significant Accounting Policies," of the Financial Statements.

The Partnership and the Funds record all investments at fair value in their financial statements, with changes in fair value reported as a component of net realized gains (losses) and net change in unrealized gains (losses) in the Consolidated Statements of Income and Expenses.

Results of Operations

During the Partnership's third quarter of 2025, the net asset value per Redeemable Unit for Class A increased 10.9% from $2,999.44 to $3,325.94, as compared to a decrease of 7.0% in the third quarter of 2024. During the Partnership's third quarter of 2025, the net asset value per Redeemable Unit for Class Z increased 11.1% from $1,270.73 to $1,411.70, as compared to a decrease of 6.8% in the third quarter of 2024. The Partnership experienced a net trading gain before fees and expenses in the third quarter of 2025 of $24,959,730. Gains were primarily attributable to the Partnership's/Funds' trading of commodity futures in currencies, energy, grains, indices, livestock, non-U.S.interest rates and metals and were partially offset by losses in U.S. interest rates and softs. The Partnership experienced a net trading loss before fees and expenses in the third quarter of 2024 of $22,854,942. Losses were primarily attributable to the Partnership's/Funds' trading of commodity futures in currencies, energy, grains, indices, livestock and metals and were partially offset by gains in U.S. and non-U.S.interest rates and softs.

During the third quarter, the Partnership's most notable gains were achieved in the global stock index sector during all three months of the quarter from long positions in Asian and U.S. equity index futures, as demand for artificial intelligence stocks and expectations for central bank interest rate cuts buoyed investor demand for risk assets. Gains were recorded in the agricultural sector during July and August from long positions in livestock futures, as prices continued to advance amid a depletion of U.S. cattle supply. Further gains in the sector came during July and September from short futures positions in soybeans, soybean meal, and wheat. In the metals sector, gains were recorded during August and September from long positions in gold, silver, and platinum futures as prices rallied on increased investor demand for precious metals. Additional gains were achieved in the energy sector during July from long positions in crude oil and its refined products as proposed tariffs on global energy products pushed prices higher. In the currency sector, gains were recorded during September from short positions in Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, and European cross currency positions. Gains were also experienced during August and September from long positions in global shipping futures, as increased demand for freight capacity boosted prices. A portion of the Partnership's gains for the third quarter was offset by losses in the global fixed income sector during September from positions in long-term and short-term U.S. fixed income futures, as prices across the U.S. yield curve moved without consistent direction amid future interest rate uncertainty. Further losses in the global fixed income sector were recorded during July from long positions in European and U.S. government debt futures, as prices fluctuated amid a lack of clarity over global central bank interest rate policies.

During the Partnership's nine months ended September 30, 2025, the net asset value per Redeemable Unit for Class A increased 2.8% from $3,236.88 to $3,325.94, as compared to a decrease of 2.2% during the nine months ended September 30, 2024. During the Partnership's nine months ended September 30, 2025, the net asset value per Redeemable Unit for Class Z increased 3.3% from $1,366.17 to $1,411.70, as compared to a decrease of 1.7% during the nine months ended September 30, 2024. The Partnership experienced a net trading gain before fees and expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 of $6,318,623. Gains were primarily attributable to the Partnership's/Funds' trading of commodity futures in indices, livestock and metals and were partially offset by losses in currencies, energy, grains, U.S. and non-U.S.interest rates and softs. The Partnership experienced a net trading loss before fees and expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 of $5,780,823. Losses were primarily attributable to the Partnership's/Funds' trading of commodity futures in currencies, energy, grains, non-U.S.interest rates and livestock and were partially offset by gains in indices, metals, U.S. interest rates and softs.

During the first nine months of the year, the Partnership's largest gains were achieved in the metals sector during each month of the first quarter from long positions in gold futures, as investor demand for precious metals spiked on a weakening dollar and concerns for the strength of the global economy. Further gains in the metals sector were recorded during August and September from long positions in gold, silver, and platinum futures, as prices rose on continued investor demand for precious metals. Gains were achieved in the global stock index sector during all three months of the third quarter from long positions in Asian and U.S. equity index futures as demand for artificial intelligence stocks and expectations for central bank interest rate cuts buoyed investor demand for risk assets. Gains were also recorded within the agricultural sector from long positions in live cattle futures as prices trended higher throughout much of the first three quarters on low cattle slaughter rates and tight supply conditions. A portion of the Partnership's overall gains for the first nine months of the year was offset by losses in the energy sector during April from long positions in Brent crude oil futures, as prices fell sharply as the OPEC+ nations announced a surprise production increase. Additional energy losses were experienced from long positions in European electricity futures during January and February and from short positioning during May and June. Losses in the currency sector were recorded throughout the first four months of the year primarily from short positions in the euro, Canadian dollar and Japanese yen versus the U.S. dollar, as the relative value of the dollar weakened amid uncertainty the effects trade tariffs would have on the U.S. economy. Further losses were recorded in the global fixed income sector during February and May from short positions in U.S. 30-yearTreasury bond futures, as prices rallied on increased investor demand for "safe-haven" assets. Elsewhere, losses in the global freight index sector were recorded during June, as prices advanced amid speculation tensions in the Middle East would curtail global shipping capacity.

Commodity markets are highly volatile. Broad price fluctuations and rapid inflation increase the risks involved in commodity trading, but also increase the possibility for profit. The profitability of the Partnership/Funds depends on the existence of major price trends and the ability of the Advisors to correctly identify those price trends. Price trends are influenced by, among other things, changing supply and demand relationships, weather, public health epidemics, governmental, agricultural, commercial and trade programs and policies, national and international political and economic events and changes in interest rates. To the extent that market trends exist and the Advisors are able to identify them, the Partnership/Funds expect to increase capital through operations.

As of September 30, 2025, interest income was earned on 100% of the average daily equity maintained in cash in the Partnership's (or the Partnership's allocable portion of a Fund's, except for Transtrend Master's) brokerage account during each month at the rate equal to the monthly average of the 4-weekU.S. Treasury bill discount rate. MS&Co. will pay monthly interest to Transtrend Master on 100% of the average daily equity maintained in cash in Transtrend Master's brokerage account during each month at the rate equal to the monthly average of the 4-weekU.S. Treasury bill discount rate less 0.15% during such month but in no event less than zero. When the effective rate is less than zero, no interest is earned. For the avoidance of doubt, the Partnership/Funds will not receive interest on amounts in the futures brokerage account that are committed to margin. Any interest earned on the Partnership's and/or each Fund's cash account in excess of the amounts described above, if any, will be retained by MS&Co. and/or shared with the General Partner. All interest earned on U.S. Treasury bills and money market mutual fund securities will be retained by the Partnership and/or the Funds, as applicable. Any interest income earned on collateral or excess cash deposited by certain of the Funds and held by JPMorgan in its capacity as such Funds' forward foreign currency counterparty will be retained by such Funds, and the Partnership will receive its allocable portion of such interest from the applicable Fund. Interest income earned by the Partnership for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 decreased by $1,254,824 and $4,306,242, respectively, as compared to the corresponding periods in 2024. The decrease in interest income was primarily due to lower 4-weekU.S. Treasury bill discount rates during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 as compared to the corresponding periods in 2024. Interest earned by the Partnership will increase the net asset value of the Partnership. The amount of interest income earned by the Partnership depends on (1) the average daily equity maintained in cash in the Partnership's and/or the Funds' accounts, (2) the amount of U.S. Treasury bills and/or money market mutual fund securities held by the Partnership and/or the Funds and (3) interest rates over which none of the Partnership, the Funds, MS&Co. or JPMorgan has control.

Certain clearing fees are based on the number of trades executed by the Advisors for the Partnership/Funds. Accordingly, they must be compared in relation to the number of trades executed during the period. Clearing fees related to direct investments for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 increased by $129,929 and $118,513, respectively, as compared to the corresponding periods in 2024. The increase in these clearing fees was primarily due to an increase in the number of direct trades made by the Partnership during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 as compared to the corresponding periods in 2024.

Ongoing selling agent fees are calculated as a percentage of the Partnership's adjusted net asset value for Class A Redeemable Units as of the end of each month and are affected by trading performance, subscriptions and redemptions. Ongoing selling agent fees for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 decreased by $113,005 and $432,986, respectively, as compared to the corresponding periods in 2024. The decrease in ongoing selling agent fees was primarily due to lower average adjusted net assets during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 as compared to the corresponding periods in 2024.

Management fees, except fees payable to Transtrend, are calculated as a percentage of the Partnership's adjusted net asset value as of the end of each month and are affected by trading performance, subscriptions and redemptions. Accordingly, they must be compared in relation to the fluctuations in the monthly net asset values. Management fees payable to Transtrend are charged at the Transtrend Master level and are affected by trading performance, subscriptions and redemptions of Transtrend Master. Management fees for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 decreased by $208,778 and $766,089, respectively, as compared to the corresponding periods in 2024. The decrease in management fees was due to lower average adjusted net assets during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 as compared to the corresponding periods in 2024.

Fees are paid to the General Partner for administering the business and affairs of the Partnership including, among other things, (i) selecting, appointing and terminating the Partnership's commodity trading advisors, (ii) allocating and reallocating the Partnership's assets among the commodity trading advisors and (iii) monitoring the activities of the commodity trading advisors. These fees are calculated as a percentage of the Partnership's adjusted net asset value as of the end of each month and are affected by trading performance, subscriptions and redemptions. Accordingly, they must be compared in relation to the fluctuations in the monthly net asset values. The General Partner fees for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 decreased by $115,674 and $444,765, respectively, as compared to the corresponding periods in 2024. The decrease in the General Partner fees was due to lower average adjusted net assets during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 as compared to the corresponding periods in 2024.

Incentive fees paid by the Partnership are based on the new trading profits, as defined in the respective management agreements among the Partnership, the General Partner/Trading Manager and each Advisor, generated by each Advisor at the end of the quarter, calendar half year or annually, as applicable. Trading performance for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 resulted in incentive fees of $0 and $0, respectively. Trading performance for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2024 resulted in incentive fees of $0 and $1,013,156, respectively. To the extent an Advisor incurs a loss for the Partnership, the Advisor will not be paid an incentive fee until such Advisor recovers any net loss incurred by the Advisor and earns additional new trading profits for the Partnership.

In allocating the assets of the Partnership among the Advisors, the General Partner considers, among other factors, each Advisor's past performance, trading style, volatility of markets traded and fee requirements. The General Partner may modify or terminate the allocation of assets among the Advisors and may allocate assets to additional advisors at any time.

As of September 30, 2025 and June 30, 2025, the Partnership's Net Assets were allocated among the Advisors in the following approximate percentages:

Advisor

September 30, 2025  September 30, 2025
(percentage of Partners' Capital)  
June 30, 2025   June 30, 2025
(percentage of Partners' Capital)  

Transtrend

 $       57,652,059  24  %  $    49,607,238  21  %

Drakewood

 $ 20,711,105  8  %  $ 22,984,478  10  %

JSCL

 $ 73,173,565  30  %  $ 66,599,035  29  %

Quantica

 $ 47,253,247  20  %  $ 43,873,511  19  %

Opus

 $ 21,257,533  9  %  $ 21,514,816  9  %

Unallocated

 $ 21,023,319  9  %  $ 27,783,201  12  %
Ceres Orion LP published this content on November 10, 2025, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Edgar on November 10, 2025 at 19:51 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]