Hidden Emissions from Wetlands, Wildfires and Permafrost Are Speeding Up the Climate Clock, Exposing a Blind Spot in Climate Policy and Reporting

(WASHINGTON, D.C. - January 20) A growing share of global greenhouse gas emissions is coming from natural, unmanaged ecosystems in response to human-caused warming, according to a study from a group of scientists led by Environmental Defense Fund, Woodwell Climate Research Center and the Global Carbon Project among others.

The study, "Policy solutions to better assess progress towards Paris goals given warming-induced ecosystem emissions, which shorten timelines by 2-5 years" finds that by mid-century, warming-driven emissions from thawing permafrost, intensifying boreal wildfires and warming tropical wetlands-which aren't currently included in national inventories could shave 20-25% off the remaining time to stay below the Paris Agreement's thresholds, even under ambitious emissions-cutting scenarios. The study was published online in the journal OneEarth.

"These greenhouse gasses are a result of manmade climate change - they are indirect human emissions," said Brian Buma, Senior Climate Scientist at EDF. "If we don't properly consider them in national inventories or global planning, it is like developing policy in the dark."

"Understanding the full scope of emissions from warming ecosystems is essential to setting sufficiently ambitious emissions reductions goals and policies grounded in the best available science," said Christina Schädel, Senior Research Scientist at Woodwell Climate Research Center and coauthor of the study. "This study underscores the importance of tracking these emissions and using them to inform sufficiently ambitious solutions to address the climate crisis."

Growing Gap Between What's Reported and What the Atmosphere Experiences

Governments report their greenhouse gas emissions through national inventories, which largely focus on direct sources like fossil fuel use and agriculture. The new analysis finds that climate-driven emissions from unmanaged lands and ecosystems are rising fast and are mostly uncounted.

The growth of these indirect emissions is also occurring in places like the Arctic and tropical wetlands, while the warming that drives them is disproportionately caused by emissions from major industrial economies.

By 2050, under a scenario broadly aligned with today's policies:

• Carbon dioxide emissions from these new sources could rise by up to 300 million metric tons of carbon per year, roughly equivalent to the combined annual CO₂ emissions of Germany and Saudi Arabia.
• Methane emissions, a far more potent warming gas in the short term, could increase by 35-50 million metric tons of carbon per year, rivaling a substantial share of current emissions from major industrialized countries.

Policy Solutions to Accurately Account for and Address Emissions

The study authors offered several solutions to address these blind spots:

• Close the reporting gap: Update international guidelines to enable reporting of indirect emissions from warming ecosystems, including currently unreported processes such as permafrost thaw.
• Raise ambition: Cut direct emissions more quickly - including methane, to slow near-term warming and limit the growth of these indirect emissions.
• Improve monitoring: Continue and expand support for satellite systems, on-the-ground monitoring and coordinated international research to improve measurement of indirect emissions.
• Use the Paris Agreement: Upcoming UN climate reviews offer a critical opportunity to factor indirect emissions into future, more ambitious, climate commitments.

"We can find solutions - we must continue to reduce fossil fuels emissions to halt the feedback loop. Tracking, measuring, and monitoring these emerging emission sources is necessary to ensure those solutions are successful," Buma said.

"There is a path forward to reducing global emissions and slowing warming. We need to use the best science to take account of these rising indirect emissions and to inform responsible climate action," said Dr. Susan Natali, Senior Scientist and co-lead of Permafrost Pathways at Woodwell Climate Research Center and coauthor of the study. "This study helps us understand the full scope of the problem and reinforces the need for closely monitoring and accurately accounting for emissions from warming ecosystems in order to reduce the magnitude of climate impacts."