In MY 2026/27, EU total grain production is forecast to fall below average levels and stay at 266 MMT. In addition to the decline in crop area, lower production is largely driven by the sharp yield declines in France, Hungary, Poland and Germany on the back of unfavorable weather. A combination of higher imports and use of the ample carry-in stocks is anticipated to cushion the domestic production decline. EU grain exports are revised down, only partially offset by improved production allowing better export prospects in Romania and Bulgaria.