Barry Geraghty’s Cheltenham Festival Blog: Kopek has speed for Arkle glory

Cheltenham, Tuesday

Supreme Novices' Hurdle - 1:20pm

This looks a brilliant race and a very deep one. Old Park Star has been really impressive all season, and there's a lot to like about him. Mighty Park made a big impression at Fairyhouse and has been talked up a lot since then, but he does lack a bit of experience and is short enough in the market. Talk The Talk and El Cairos both bounced back from falls at Christmas to look like big contenders, but they're well found in the betting.

You can easily make cases for any of those four, but I do also think they all have a little bit to prove, so there could be value in opposing them. Leader D'Allier is certainly one of interest, but my main selection would be SOBER GLORY. He did disappoint once this season at Sandown, but other than that he has looked really impressive in his other hurdles starts and also in his bumpers last season. He has form on good-to-soft ground and form on heavy, so he's versatile, and I think he is a horse that is overpriced.

Arkle Novices' Chase - 2:00pm

I'm a big KOPEK DES BORDES fan. We've only seen him once this season, when he won at Navan in November and he was really impressive there. I thought he was brilliant over the last three fences and looked like he had learned a lot through the race. He's had two racecourse schooling sessions with really strong stablemates including Impaire Et Passe. While he might not have the form in the book, those will have made sure he isn't short on experience. He was a really good winner of the Supreme last year and I think he's got more pace than Lulamba. I've great respect for Lulamba, and I thought he did brilliantly to win the William Hill Game Spirit last time, but it's so important to be able to travel within yourself at Cheltenham, especially over two miles over fences, and I wonder whether Kopek Des Bordes' speed could catch Lulamba out.

I remember finishing second to Well Chief on Kicking King in this race 22 years ago, and Well Chief had only had one run that season. I see this race as being a bit similar, and we could be looking back in time at a Champion Chase horse beating a future Gold Cup contender.

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle - 2:40pm

I like SARATOGA here. He represents the same connections - JP McManus, Padraig Roche and Mark Walsh - that won this race in 2022 with Brazil, getting the better of none other than Gaelic Warrior. He was a good second in Naas on his last start, and his jumping looks to have improved with each run this season. This is a race that is all about potential improvement and I think Saratoga might be one that takes a big step forward here.

Ultima Handicap Chase - 3:20pm

HANDSTANDS won the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices' Chase last season, beating Jango Baie, which is form that has worked out well with that horse among the favourites for the Gold Cup later in the week. That's strong Grade 1 form, which stands out in this handicap. Jango Baie has excelled since stepping up in trip and Handstands should really benefit from stepping back up in trip again. He struggled in the early part of the season, being beaten at Carlisle on his reappearance and then disappointing in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Since then, he's had a wind op and returned with a good third behind Protektorat at Windsor, when attempting to give the winner eight pounds. I thought he was ridden like a horse in need of the run that day and got tired late on. I would expect him to step forward from that, especially in first-time cheekpieces. I think he's a horse that hasn't yet fulfilled his potential.

One that's of interest each way is BLAZE THE WAY. He was a winner at Cheltenham in December, when beating L'Homme Presse, who went on to finish second to Spillane's Tower on his next start. That looks strong form and his experience of Cheltenham is a positive too.

Champion Hurdle - 4:00pm

This is a really tricky race this year with question marks over the strength of some of the form. I don't believe we saw the best of LOSSIEMOUTH at the Dublin Racing Festival last time. She didn't travel, she didn't jump and to me it just looked a lacklustre performance. She's won all bar four of her runs over hurdles, but that was her most laboured performance in defeat behind Brighterdaysahead. She is probably better over two-and-a-half miles, but she wears cheekpieces here for the first time which could sharpen her jumping.I think if she produces her best, then she brings the strongest form into the race and is the one to beat.

The New Lion is a very good horse, but there have to be a few doubts about his form. He beat The Yellow Clay in the Turners last year and that form hasn't really worked out. He took a heavy fall in the Fighting Fifth and he jumped carefully and wasn't that far ahead of Nemean Lion last time at Cheltenham, so he probably needs to step up here.

Plate Handicap Chase - 4:40pm

Emmet Mullins is more than capable of producing one on the big day and I like his runner MCLAUREY. Three of his four runs over fences have come over two miles, which looks sharper than ideal for him. Some of that form looks good too, most notably his third to Jacob's Ladder at Fairyhouse in December, and last season he won a good handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival, beating Storm Heart and Irish Panther, who are both fancied to run well this week. He has strong form in the book and I imagine this step up in trip is going to bring out the best in him.

National Hunt Novices' Chase - 5:20pm

There's been a lot of talk about the chances of Backmersackme and he is well fancied coming here on the back of a good win at Leopardstown but the value could be with WADE OUT. He's top-weight here, but in this compressed handicap he doesn't have to give that much weight away to his main rivals. He looks a proper stayer, having won at Cheltenham over three-miles-one-furlong on soft ground in November. Before that he beat Wendigo - well fancied for the Brown Advisory - over two-and-a-half miles at Worcester, so that suggests he has plenty of ability. He was always likely to get outpaced around a track like Windsor last time, and this staying test should really suit him. Wearing cheekpieces for the first time is also positive.