Jared Diamond on warning signs – and hope – for the future of democracy

In July, the United States will mark its 250th anniversary. But it's still unclear what celebrations will look like as many Americans, including UCLA professor emeritus and renowned scholar Jared Diamond, are increasingly concerned about the state of democracy in the country.

Diamond, who delivered UCLA's 11th annual Luskin Lecture for Thought Leadership on April 15 in Royce Hall, explored our current moment with an eye to the future - and the past - after an introduction from Chancellor Julio Frenk.

"UCLA must continue to be a platform for thinkers who challenge us to ask hard questions, to see more clearly and to seek order within a world of chaos," said Frenk, who thanked the series' founders, distinguished alumni Meyer and Renee Luskin.

To illustrate the dangers of growing political and social polarization, Diamond, who joined UCLA's faculty in 1966 and retired in 2024, underscored how deeply divided the U.S. has become by drawing on his own life between two political worlds.

The Pulitzer Prize-winning historian, who splits his time between Los Angeles and rural Montana, described how Americans in blue (Democratic-leaning) and red (Republican-leaning) regions live in increasingly separate realities. That division is growing wider as more people communicate online, he says, which fuels mistrust and makes compromise difficult - reinforcing the conditions that lead to erosion of democratic norms.

A look back at history

He also looked to historical examples, including Chile's descent from democracy into dictatorship under Gen. Augusto Pinochet in the 1970s, as well as parallels with Italy under Benito Mussolini and Germany under Adolf Hitler prior to World War II.

Diamond outlined what he sees as the seven themes commonly associated with democracies at risk. They include societies that are already under significant economic or social stress; governments that pursue policies desired by some citizens but intolerable to many others; the difficulty of predicting which elected leaders may become authoritarian; the early popularity of leaders who deliver results that previous governments failed to achieve; and the public's initial willingness to excuse harmful actions in exchange for those results.

He added: "Violence is a warning sign of a democracy that may slide into dictatorship, as well as the toleration of violence by its citizenry."

Diamond, who lived in postwar Germany, recalled conversations with friends who explained public acquiescence to Nazi violence with a proverb: "Wo gehobelt wird, da fallen Späne" ("Where wood is chopped, chips must fall.") The saying reflects a mindset in which abuses are rationalized as an unfortunate but acceptable cost of achieving desired outcomes.

He pointed to contemporary debates around immigration enforcement and policing in the United States. When abuses of power are framed as the cost of restoring order or achieving political goals, public tolerance can take hold, he said - a pattern that mirrors the early dynamics enabling authoritarian rule in Germany, Italy and Chile.

'An America for all Americans'

But he also offered reasons for cautious optimism about the future of American democracy: The U.S. military has never acted independently to impose a dictatorship, and violence by state actors has historically sparked widespread public protest rather than broad acquiescence.

"What's going to happen now in the U.S.? I can't predict how it'll turn out. Nobody can," Diamond said. But he believes what could bring Americans together across the political spectrum are "a willingness to focus tactically on issues that other Americans care about and a willingness to create an America for all Americans."

Inspiring others to learn from history for the good of humanity has been a throughline in many of Diamond's six best-selling books, including "Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies" and his most recent publication, "Upheaval: How Nations Cope with Crisis and Change."

It's also been a driving force of the Luskin Lecture for Thought Leadership, presented by the UCLA College, UCLA Division of Social Sciences, UCLA School of Law and the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, which was established in 2011 as part of a transformative gift from the Luskins.

"This remarkable series, which only gains momentum with each passing year, is in service to the core mission of UCLA: to further knowledge for the benefit of all," said Miguel García-Garibay, dean of physical sciences and senior dean of the UCLA College. "Professor Diamond has long been an ambassador of that charge."