Singapore’s 9.25 GW low-carbon electricity import pipeline is stuck: Wood Mackenzie expects just 2% of the generation mix from imports by 2035

• No project under EMA's low-carbon framework has reached Financial Close or commenced construction

• Malaysia has emerged as the only corridor with a credible path to delivery this decade

• Almost half the pipeline is long-dated and high risk

Singapore has approved 9.25 gigawatts (GW) of low-carbon electricity import capacity across six corridors. However, Wood Mackenzie's latest analysis finds that imports will make up only 2% of Singapore's electricity generation mix by 2035. This is well below the Energy Market Authority's (EMA) 6 GW target, according to the firm's new report, Green Electrons Are Waiting to Cross the Border to Singapore: 2026 Update.

According to Wood Mackenzie, Singapore generates up to 95% of its electricity from natural gas and has limited land for utility-scale renewables. Therefore, EMA's import scheme is essential. The 6 GW objective would meet about one-third of projected demand and is a central pillar of the country's decarbonisation strategy. Yet none of the 9.25 GW of EMA approved projects has begun construction.

"The most significant challenges for EMA lie in export permit frameworks, project bankability, cross-border transmission financing, and the lack of a complete market mechanism that allows Singapore buyers to claim the carbon value of imported electricity," said Wei Han Tan, Research Analyst - Southeast Asia Power and Renewables Research at Wood Mackenzie.

EMA's September 2026 request for proposals raised the number of hydrogen-ready combined-cycle gas turbine units planned for 2032 from two to five, in addition to the 600 MW already approved for 2027 and 2029. This growth shows the important role gas-fired power will have in keeping the electricity supply steady as Singapore manages rising electricity needs and its shift to cleaner energy.

Singapore's 9.25 GW low-carbon electricity import pipeline, ranked by likelihood of COD

Source: Wood Mackenzie

Indonesia: The corridor that changes the whole scheme's outlook if only it can move

Indonesia accounts for 37% of the approved pipeline, with six projects holding Conditional Licences confirming technical and commercial feasibility, Wood Mackenize noted. Yet progress has largely stalled because Clause 37 of Indonesia's 2021 electricity regulation requires export permits to be renewed every five years and allows quotas to be revoked if domestic supply is at risk. This undermines 20-year project financing. A 40% local content requirement adds another hurdle. Meeting EMA's firm-power standard requires large-scale battery storage, creating a need for domestic manufacturing capacity before projects can be built. Without agreed pricing, offtake contracts, or a bankable revenue model, projects cannot reach FID.

The key development came in July 2026, when sovereign wealth fund Danantara was designated to spearhead cross-border electricity trade with Singapore and signed MOUs with Keppel Electric, Sembcorp Utilities and SGEI. Government Regulation No. 24/2026, which routes strategic commodity exports through a Danantara subsidiary, suggests a mechanism exists to address the permit issue. The key watch point is whether the same structure can be extended to electricity.

Malaysia: The only path to delivery this decade

The existing Malaysia-Singapore HVDC interconnector provides up to 1 GW of bidirectional capacity, bypassing the global cable supply bottleneck affecting other corridors.

EMA approved 900 MW from Johor in August 2026, with 300 MW to Sembcorp Utilities for floating solar and battery storage, and 600 MW to Ditrolic Energy's Southern Solar Alliance, backed by BlackRock's Climate Finance Partnership and the IFC. The Sembcorp project could achieve initial imports by 2029 through existing infrastructure. However, full delivery of the remaining 600 MW would likely require a second interconnector, which remains at the feasibility-study stage and faces potential timing constraints beyond 2030.

For longer-dated projects requiring new subsea infrastructure, Sarawak stands apart. Its Preferred Supplier Agreement with Prysmian, signed in October 2025, provides a level of cable-supply certainty that Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Australia currently cannot match. Commercial operation is realistically targeted for the mid-2030s.

Vietnam, Cambodia and Australia: Not on a near-term radar

Vietnam, Cambodia and Australia collectively account for 43% of the approved pipeline, but all remain at the Conditional Approval stage with no visible construction timeline.

Vietnam has no legal mechanism for a foreign developer to build generation and export it via a dedicated subsea cable. Decree 272, issued in July 2026, opened offshore wind to foreign investment, but export arrangements and cross-border transmission remain unresolved.

Cambodia has shown no publicly visible progress in more than three years. It lacks an export regulatory framework and surplus generation. Two-thirds of households face regular blackouts.

Sun Cable's Australia-Asia Power Link faces a different constraint. Around 3,700 km of its 4,500 km cable route crosses Indonesian territorial waters, and the survey permit approved in 2025 does not authorise cable laying.

These projects are unlikely to become significant sources of imports before the second half of the next decade.

The price test: the final hurdle for every corridor

Even after resolving permitting and transmission issues, price remains a key challenge for each corridor. Imported power must compete with the Uniform Singapore Energy Price, currently about S$250/MWh, while domestic gas already includes a carbon tax. Projects also require a certificate framework so Singapore buyers can claim the carbon benefits of imported low-carbon electricity. This framework is still under development.

"The projects that get built will be those that can secure an Importer License EMA, demonstrate their ability to deliver firm power at an annual load factor of at least 60% and offer a price that offtakers are willing to commit long term," said Wei Han. "No project in the pipeline has cleared all three hurdles yet."