UK shoppers stuck between seasons as summer favourites remain in the supermarket basket

• Total Till sales at UK major supermarkets grew +1.4% in the four weeks ending 3rd October, down from +1.8% in the previous reporting period, as shoppers remain cautious about spending
• Summer favourites remain top of the supermarket basket, with mineral water (+17.4%) and ice cream (+11.7%) outperforming for this month, while sales for hot chocolate (-11%) and ambient soup (-5.4%) decline
• Online grocery sales grew +9.9% to more than £2bn, while rapid delivery increased its share of online grocery to 10.5%, with its customer base growing +21% year on year

London,13 October, 2026: Total Till sales at UK major supermarkets increased (+1.4%) in the last four ending 3rd October 2026 according to the latest data released today by NielsenIQ (NIQ).

NIQ data shows that cautious consumer spending continued to constrain the market, with unit sales almost flat, rising just +0.1% year on year. This growth was further subdued with inflation being lower than it was this time last year. The latest data also shows that while shoppers made more frequent visits to stores (+1.8%) in the last four weeks, the average spend per visit remained broadly unchanged at £18.58, reflecting continued caution around household grocery budgets. ¹

Grocery baskets remain in summer mode
Unseasonably warm weather in September kept summer favourites firmly in UK shoppers' baskets, while traditional autumn comforts struggled to gain traction. There was an increase in sales for mineral water (17.4%), soft drinks (12.9%) and ice cream (11.7%), suncare sales also grew 8.6%, suggesting shoppers were continuing to enjoy the prolonged summer weather. ²

Summer habits also led shoppers to embrace global flavours and convenient meal options. Japanese (+17%) and Mexican (+14%) cooking sauces recorded strong value growth over the last four weeks, while branded fresh ready meals grew +16%, suggesting demand for quick, flavourful meals remained strong. Meanwhile, premium ranges continued to drive growth across own-label products. ²

However, this shift impacted more 'autumnal' categories, including ambient soup sales, which fell -5.4% and hot beverages declined -2.8%. Hot chocolate saw the sharpest drop, with sales down -11%.²

Beyond the seasonal split, shoppers continued to rein in non-essential spending. Beer, wine and spirits sales fell -0.6%, while general merchandise declined -4.6%, suggesting pressure on household budgets is extending beyond the weekly grocery shop. ²

Rapid grocery delivery taps into cravings for drinks and treats
Moreover, online grocery sales exceeded £2bn in the latest four weeks, growing +9.9% in value, while unit growth accelerated to +6.2%, outpacing the wider market and underlining the continued shift towards online shopping. ³

Rapid delivery is also gaining ground, now accounting for 10.5% of online grocery sales, with its customer base growing +21% year on year. But the difference lies not just in how shoppers buy groceries, but what they choose to buy. ⁴

NIQ data shows that drinks, ice cream and chocolate account for a greater share of spending through rapid delivery than through traditional online supermarket orders. Alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages make up 23% of rapid delivery sales value, compared with 16% through traditional online grocery. These figures point to a distinct role for rapid delivery in the grocery market, currently catering to immediate needs and impulse purchases alongside the more planned, larger online shop. ⁴

In terms of retailer performance, in the last 12 weeks Tesco sales increased (+1.9%), followed by Morrisons (+1.1%) which overtook Sainsbury's (+0.7%). Asda sales declined -0.5% over the 12 week period, although performance improved in the latest four weeks as sales returned to growth (+0.7%). Lidl sales growth was +6.8%.

Ocado (+17.2%) and M&S (+10.7%) continued to outperform the wider market. M&S' strong performance has been supported by growing social media interest in its product launches, with Director of Product Development Kathryn Turner attracting attention on TikTok, reflecting the retailer's ability to turn product buzz into shopper demand. Meanwhile, Waitrose is tapping into growing appetite for food-focused content through its Dish podcast, using culinary storytelling to deepen engagement with consumers.

Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight at NielsenIQ, said: "September is always a challenging month for food retailers, with little reason for shoppers to spend more and many preferring to save money ahead of what is likely to be a more expensive end to the year. While the Indian summer helped purchasing in drinks and snacks, it also contributed to shoppers failing to make the transition to autumnal spending which typically drives grocery sales."

Watkins continued: "It's clear that consumers remain concerned about their personal finances. Yet, our data shows that shoppers are continuing to make selective trade-offs between value and quality. More than half (55%)⁵ say that if they are going to spend more, they would prefer to choose something that is clearly premium, highlighting opportunities for retailers to encourage affordable indulgence and trading up during the upcoming festive period.

Watkins concludes: "Looking ahead, retailers will be seeking fresh momentum as they enter the crucial final quarter of the year. With the October half-term holidays and the start of Christmas advertising and promotional campaigns approaching, there will be opportunities to stimulate spending through product innovation, premium meal solutions and compelling value propositions that appeal to budget-conscious shoppers. And if that happens, we anticipate Total Till growth of up to +2.5% this Christmas. If so, this would put supermarkets in a similar position as last year."

About NIQ Total Till

NIQ's continuous panel of 30,000 GB households and our widest read of retailer performance and designed to measure household purchasing through major supermarkets intended for in-home consumption and brought back into the home. It includes all food and drink, household, and personal care and non-food spend (e.g. clothing, cards and stationery, newspapers & magazines, toys, all other general merchandise) and also tobacco.

About NIQ

NielsenIQ (NYSE: NIQ) is a leading consumer intelligence company, delivering the most complete and trusted understanding of consumer buying behavior and revealing new pathways to growth. By combining an unmatched global data footprint and granular consumer and retail measurement with decades of AI modeling expertise, NIQ builds decision systems that help companies turn complex data into confident action. With operations in more than 90 countries, NIQ covers approximately 82% of the world's population and more than $7.4 trillion in global consumer spend. Through cloud-based platforms, advanced analytics and AI-driven insights, NIQ delivers The Full View™-helping brands and retailers understand what consumers buy, why they buy it, and what to do next. For more information, please visit NIQ.com

Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer

This press release includes forward-looking statements that reflect NIQ's current expectations and projections about future market trends and consumer behavior. These statements are based on available information and reasonable assumptions but are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. NIQ does not undertake to update these statements, except as required by law.