National Fuel Projects Lower Winter Heating Costs as Natural Gas Remains the Most Affordable and Reliable Option for Home Heating

Low-cost natural gas supplies, fully stocked storage fields, and customer assistance programs help position Western New York for the 2026-27 heating season

National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation ("National Fuel") expects the typical residential customer to spend approximately $742 to heat their home this winter, nearly 5% less than last winter's average cost of $780.

The projected decrease reflects lower natural gas supply costs, the impact of strong storage inventories, and National Fuel's long-term gas purchasing strategy, which helps reduce exposure to market volatility and seasonal price spikes. The lower supply costs are partially offset by the final delivery rate adjustment under National Fuel's current three-year rate plan, which took effect Oct. 1.

The estimate assumes average residential usage of 71.3 thousand cubic feet of natural gas during the November-through-March heating season. Projected costs are lower due to both reduced natural gas commodity prices and lower expected consumption following last winter, which was 5.7% colder than normal.

Natural gas prices have declined from last winter amid record U.S. production and strong storage inventories. NYMEX natural gas forward prices for the upcoming winter are averaging $3.42 per MMBtu, compared with $4.59 per MMBtu last winter. In addition, approximately 40% of National Fuel's winter gas supplies are expected to come from storage at a cost of approximately $2.20 per MMBtu, allowing customers to benefit from lower-cost natural gas purchased during the summer months and stored for winter use.

National Fuel's underground storage fields are fully stocked and prepared to meet expected winter demand, helping ensure reliable service during periods of extreme cold.

"Customers are looking for certainty when it comes to household energy costs," said Michael Colpoys, President of National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation. "Thanks to abundant natural gas supplies, prudent planning and investments in our utility system, we expect heating costs to be lower this winter while continuing to provide the safe and reliable service our customers depend on every day."

Natural Gas Remains an Affordable Heating Option

Energy affordability remains an important issue for Western New York households and businesses. Access to abundant natural gas supplies produced in neighboring states, combined with extensive pipeline and storage infrastructure, continues to help keep residential heating costs among the lowest in New York State and the Northeast

• National Fuel customers continue to benefit from some of the lowest residential natural gas bills in the region. In 2025, National Fuel's average monthly residential bill was the lowest among New York State's nine large investor-owned natural gas utilities. On a per-unit basis, National Fuel's rates were also the lowest in the Northeast.
• Residential heating costs have remained relatively stable over the long term. While annual heating expenses vary based on weather and natural gas prices, National Fuel customers have benefited from nearly two decades of moderate delivery rate increases. Since 2008, the Company has filed just two New York delivery rate cases, helping keep overall heating costs affordable compared with many other regions.

National Fuel customers benefit from their proximity to Appalachian natural gas production and access to interstate pipeline and storage infrastructure. Nearly all natural gas supplies are sourced from neighboring states. The cost of purchasing, storing and transporting those supplies is passed directly to customers without markup or profit.

National Fuel's most recent rate case, filed in 2023, resulted in a three-year rate plan, with the final adjustment taking effect Oct. 1, 2026. The Company has since worked with the New York State Public Service Commission on a plan designed to avoid any additional delivery rate increases for at least 24 months.

• Residential energy burden remains well below New York State's affordability benchmark. New York State seeks to keep household energy burden, the percentage of income spent on energy, below 3% for natural gas utility service. For a National Fuel customer in Erie County with median household income of $73,011, the estimated energy burden is approximately 1.6%. National Fuel also administers assistance programs designed to help eligible low-income customers maintain affordable service.
• Projected winter heating costs continue to favor natural gas. Based on forecasted energy prices and typical household usage, a home heated with natural gas is expected to incur substantially lower seasonal heating costs this winter heating season.

The following estimates reflect projected energy costs for a typical Western New York home during the 2026-27 heating season.

Even under projected winter conditions, the cost of heating a home with natural gas is expected to be approximately one-half that of a cold-climate air-source heat pump and significantly lower than propane or electric resistance heating.

What Drives a Winter Gas Bill?

The average residential gas bill consists of two primary components:

Gas supply charges (approximately 50%): The cost of purchasing, storing and transporting natural gas. National Fuel does not earn a profit on these costs, which are passed directly to customers.

Delivery charges (approximately 50%): The cost of operating and maintaining approximately 10,000 miles of pipelines and related facilities, responding to emergencies, serving customers and funding taxes and state-mandated programs. Delivery rates and earnings are regulated by the New York State Public Service Commission. National Fuel earns approximately 8 cents of every dollar billed and does not benefit from increased customer usage.

Weather remains the single largest factor affecting winter heating costs. Colder temperatures increase natural gas usage, while milder weather generally lowers consumption. Periods of extreme cold, such as Winter Storm Fern last year, can also drive regional natural gas prices higher.

To help manage those fluctuations, National Fuel uses a diversified gas purchasing strategy and underground storage. Storage serves both affordability and reliability purposes by allowing the Company to purchase natural gas when prices are lower and maintain reserves for peak winter demand.

On the coldest day of the year, Western New York typically receives approximately 2.5 times more energy from natural gas storage than from the electric grid, underscoring the critical role storage plays in meeting winter energy needs.

Individual household bills will vary based on weather, home size and age, insulation levels, thermostat settings and the type and efficiency of heating equipment.

Help Is Available

National Fuel encourages customers who may need assistance this winter to seek help early.

Eligible New York customers may qualify for up to $1,612 in combined heating assistance through available programs.

National Fuel also offers payment arrangements, budget billing and energy-efficiency programs to help customers manage energy costs.

The Regular Home Energy Assistance Program (HEAP) is expected to open Nov. 2, 2026. Eligible households that heat with natural gas may receive a regular benefit of $400, with additional supplements available for certain income-qualified and vulnerable households. Benefits for households with heat included in rent range from $21 to $50.

"We know energy costs remain a concern for many families," said Karen Merkel, spokesperson for National Fuel. "Customers who may be struggling should contact us as early as possible. Our representatives can help connect customers with assistance programs, payment arrangements and other resources that may be available."

Customers can learn more about assistance programs, budget billing, payment arrangements and energy-efficiency programs by calling 1-800-365-3234, Monday through Friday from 7 a.m. to 6 p.m., or by visiting National Fuel's website.

Source: New York State Home Energy Assistance Program (HEAP) 2026-27 eligibility guidelines.

Customers can also reduce winter energy use by weatherizing their homes, maintaining heating equipment, replacing furnace filters regularly and lowering thermostat settings while sleeping or away from home.

About National Fuel

National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation and National Fuel Gas Distribution of Ohio, LLC, the utility subsidiaries of National Fuel Gas Company (NYSE: NFG), provide safe and reliable natural gas service to approximately 1.1 million customers through operations in New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio. The Company's utility service territory spans Western New York, Northwestern Pennsylvania and the greater Dayton and Miami Valley region of Ohio.