The World Will Exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C Goal, Global Energy Projections Indicate

Date

April 7, 2026

News Type

Press Release

What's the story?

A decade after 196 parties signed on to the Paris Agreement, new analysis indicates that the agreement's "stretch goal" of limiting global average temperature rise to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels before 2050 is no longer plausible.

Projected increases in renewable energy around the world will not be enough to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions due to growing global electricity demand and strong markets for oil and natural gas in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. While the Paris Agreement's broader goal of keeping average temperature rise below 2°C is still alive, achieving this goal will only be possible if nations implement ambitious new climate policies.

These findings are highlights of the Global Energy Outlook 2026 report-an annual analysis from Resources for the Future (RFF) that harmonizes projections from top energy organizations to understand the future of global energy security, affordability, and greenhouse gas emissions.

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What do the projections indicate?

• The world will exceed 1.5°C of warming above preindustrial levels by 2050. Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will be extremely challenging without substantial policy changes.
• Electricity demand is surging. Data centers, electric vehicles, and other electricity-hungry technologies are boosting projections for power consumption. Trends vary across global regions, with China seeing the starkest increase in projected electricity generation.
• World coal demand has grown faster than expected. Previous years' projections showing a global decline of coal have not materialized. This year, demand for coal is again projected to fall, but surging electricity demand, a renewed focus on energy security, and new US policies call these projections into question.
• Energy demand diverges across global regions. Demand for coal, oil, and natural gas generally declines across the Americas, Europe, and Eurasia. In Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, coal demand falls while demand for oil and gas grows under many scenarios.
• Wind and solar lead future energy growth. Under most scenarios, wind and solar account for more than half of global electricity generation by 2050. Nuclear energy also grows considerably under all scenarios.

Expert Perspective

⚡Why is this report noteworthy?

Each year, top energy organizations release long-term projections for the world's energy future. These projections have different methodologies and assumptions, which make them hard to compare. The Global Energy Outlook synthesizes these projections to offer a broad understanding of how different levels of climate policy may influence the global energy system.

The report categorizes each projection by its energy and climate policy assumptions: reference scenarios assume limited or no new climate policies; evolving scenarios assume that most announced policies will be implemented and that technologies will develop according to recent trends; and ambitious climate scenarios assume that the world limits global temperature rise to 2°C by 2100.

The 2026 Global Energy Outlook harmonizes 15 scenarios across 8 organizations. Each organization prepared its report before US military activities commenced in Venezuela and Iran, which will certainly have lasting effects on global energy markets.

World Electricity Generation

️ Why is 1.5°C no longer attainable?

By analyzing projections from 2025 and previous years, the report authors show how the world has repeatedly missed opportunities to reduce consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas. This year, US policy changes have further disrupted progress by withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, reducing support for renewable energy investments, and aggressively supporting fossil fuels.

But the United States is only part of the story. Rapid industrial growth has been met in large part with fossil fuels, increasing global emissions. Population growth and rising economic activity in developing parts of the world are increasing vehicle ownership, aviation demand, and freight volumes; future energy needs for the transportation sector will depend on how quickly new technologies scale and how quickly vehicle fleets turn over.

Rising electricity demand is also contributing to greater energy needs. Although renewable energy is growing, its terawatts mostly represent an energy addition, not an energy transition. The expansion of energy-efficient technologies and renewable generation-especially solar generation in China-indicates that the carbon intensity of electric grids will likely decline, negating some of the impact of rising electricity demand. Artificial intelligence will be a major driver of electricity demand growth, at least in the near term.

Where can I learn more?

For more, read the report Global Energy Outlook 2026: How the World Lost the Goal of 1.5°C by RFF scholars Daniel Raimi, Emily Joiner, Bryan Hubbell, Nafisa Lohawala, and Molly Robertson. The report includes detailed demand projections for coal, natural gas, solar, and other energy sources across global regions.

Join us today at 1:30 p.m. ET for a webinar that will explore the Global Energy Outlook's findings and the topics explored in the report. Register here.

Resources for the Future (RFF) is an independent, nonprofit research institution in Washington, DC. Its mission is to improve environmental, energy, and natural resource decisions through impartial economic research and policy engagement. RFF is committed to being the most widely trusted source of research insights and policy solutions leading to a healthy environment and a thriving economy.

Unless otherwise stated, the views expressed here are those of the individual authors and may differ from those of other RFF experts, its officers, or its directors. RFF does not take positions on specific legislative proposals.

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