3 Stocks That Could Pop Before December 31

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There are 36 trading days between now and New Year's Eve. Our test: for every trading day since 2003, find the stocks sitting as far below their 1-year high as they are today, and count how often they gained 15% or more over the next 36 trading days. We picked three from different corners of the market, so you're not making one bet three times.

That test cuts both ways: the same stocks fell another 15% or more up to about 1 time in 6. In a portfolio of a few million dollars, a bad December matters more than a 7-week pop. How would yours hold up? A Trefis partner firm can stress-test it with you in a free 15-minute call.

How Did We Pick Them?

All three have gained 15% about 4 times in 10 from here before, and each has something dated before Dec. 31 that could move it.

For each stock, we took every trading day since 2003 when it closed at least as far below its 252-day high as on Nov 9, minus 5 points, kept one day per week, and measured the return 36 trading days later. Sample sizes: Applied Materials 90, MercadoLibre 246, Vertiv 57. Limits: a small sample for Vertiv (it has traded only since 2020), today's survivors only, and past odds aren't promises.

Why These Three, Now?

Applied Materials: the chip machines. It reports on Thursday, Nov. 12. Analysts expect revenue to jump 37% next fiscal year, yet the stock's price-to-sales multiple has fallen 52% since its late-June peak. One confident 2027 outlook could close that gap.

Vertiv: the power behind AI. It sells the cooling and power gear inside data centers. It fell after the midterms, as Texas's governor-elect pledged a pause on new data centers, then jumped about 10% on Monday. CoreWeave's results on Tuesday and Texas's next steps are the next tests.

MercadoLibre: Latin America's Amazon. Its price-to-sales multiple has roughly halved since January while sales are expected to grow 29% next year. The holiday shopping season in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina lands before Dec. 31.

The odds favor them; they don't guarantee anything. Each has been this beaten down before and usually bounced. Each also fell another 15% or more, from 1 time in 45 (Applied) to about 1 in 6 (Vertiv). Size accordingly. We'll grade all three on Dec. 31.

What Should You Ask Next?

If you have $1 million or more invested, get a second opinion before year-end in a free 15-minute call with a Trefis partner firm.

For questions about this article or underlying research, email [email protected].