What Comes Next for Israel-Hamas Ceasefire

Critical Questions by Mona Yacoubian and Will Todman

Published October 9, 2025

On October 8, President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed to the first phase of his peace deal for Gaza. He had unveiled a 20-point plan to end the war in Gaza after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the White House on September 29.

If implemented, the first phase of the deal will see an initial cessation of fighting in Gaza, a partial withdrawal of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) from Gaza, the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and a surge of humanitarian aid.

Q1: Why did Israel and Hamas agree to this now?

A1: The agreement between Israel and Hamas comes almost two years to the day after Hamas's unprecedented October 7 attack on Israel. Two years of war have devastated Gaza, exhausted the IDF, and accelerated Israel's international isolation.

International pressure has sharpened on Netanyahu in recent weeks. Several key Israeli allies recognized Palestinian statehood in September, global outcry over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza has grown, and Netanyahu was chastened after his failed strike on Hamas officials in Doha.

Domestic pressure on Netanyahu has also grown. Opinion polls show two-thirds of Israelis now believe it is time to end the war, including most Jewish Israelis. Families of hostages also engaged in consistent advocacy for a deal, organizing large public protests. Although hardliners in Netanyahu's government continued to resist a deal, the combination of international and domestic pressure forced Netanyahu to pursue a diplomatic path.

Hamas's calculation changed in recent weeks. Regional states have pushed harder for Hamas to compromise, raising the cost for Hamas to reject the deal unilaterally. After two years of war, Arab states fear the repercussions of continued fighting on their own populations and sought an offramp. Eight foreign ministers of Arab and Muslim-majority states issued a joint statement welcoming President Trump's plan. The Israeli government's decision to launch a ground offensive into Gaza City convinced Hamas leaders to compromise. Israel's offensive put even more military pressure on Hamas, but also risked killing or freeing the hostages, which was their last key source of leverage. Agreeing to the first phase of the deal and to release the hostages forestalls the Israeli operation in Gaza City and enhances Hamas's standing with regional mediators when subsequent phases of the deal are negotiated.

Q2: Did the Trump administration play a decisive role?

A2: The Trump administration played an indispensable role in successfully negotiating the agreement. Even prior to President Trump's inauguration in January 2025, senior officials from his administration were engaged in discussions that led to a temporary ceasefire and hostage release. In the intervening months, Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff made several trips to the region-including to Gaza to gain insight into the worsening humanitarian situation-in pursuit of an agreement. The administration's diplomacy intensified following Israeli strikes on Doha last month that targeted senior Hamas leaders, who were reportedly reviewing a Trump administration ceasefire proposal through Qatari mediation. The attack enraged Qatar, prompting Doha to suspend its mediating role. Angered by the Israeli strikes, President Trump reportedly leveraged Israel's overreach to compel Prime Minister Netanyahu to agree to a deal.

In the ensuing weeks, President Trump pushed hard on both Hamas and Israel to come to an agreement. The president combined public threats against Hamas, behind-the-scenes pressure on Netanyahu, and incentives to Qatar to resume its mediating role. As part of this effort, President Trump forced Prime Minister Netanyahu's somewhat public apology to Qatar for the strikes. The administration also leveraged its ties to Arab partners to forge a consensus supporting Trump's 20-point plan. This unified Arab position added significant pressure on Hamas to sign on to the agreement. President Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner-who maintains strong ties to both Israel and the Gulf-also played a key role in shaping the agreement. He joined the negotiations in the days prior to the October 8 breakthrough, adding a critical voice with close personal ties to the president to the discussions.

Q3: How significant are the remaining challenges?

A3: While yesterday's agreement marks an important breakthrough, significant challenges remain. Three immediate points of tension revolve around questions of Hamas disarmament, Israeli withdrawal, and a permanent end to hostilities. The agreement aspires to the "demilitarisation of Gaza under the supervision of independent monitors," but is short on details. Major outstanding questions center around the disarmament of Hamas, where the agreement is quite vague with no clear indications of timelines or benchmarks, let alone exactly how disarmament will be accomplished. Nor does the deal offer insights into how to achieve the destruction of "all military, terror and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapons production facilities." Hamas's tunnels pose a particularly thorny challenge. Senior Israeli defense officials estimate that Hamas's tunnel network in Gaza runs 350-400 miles long, stretching up to 200 feet underground.

Meanwhile, questions also remain regarding phases of Israeli withdrawal, with the agreement stipulating initial withdrawal to an "agreed upon line," but lacking further clarity on the timing and sequencing of subsequent Israeli withdrawals. The plan also envisions an Israeli buffer zone within Gaza, yet Hamas has indicated its expectation of a full Israeli withdrawal from the territory. Differences on these questions can easily derail the plan and lead to the resumption of hostilities.

Finally, over the long term, governance and security arrangements to govern the "day after" in Gaza remain largely aspirational, with significant gaps in implementation. For example, how will the plan's envisioned transitional governance structure of Palestinian technocrats be constituted? Nor is there clarity on the oversight and supervision roles of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and President Trump (as chairman of the "Board of Peace"). The creation of an International Stabilization Force of Arab and global partners also faces high hurdles. Unless there is clear buy-in from Palestinian elements on the ground (to include Hamas, which opposes the idea), it is hard to imagine any Arab forces willing to deploy on the ground. The plan's vision for an enduring solution to the conflict via "a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood" will likely meet strong Israeli opposition. And with all of these challenges impeding an enduring end to the conflict, Gulf interlocutors will remain unwilling to fund Gaza reconstruction, estimated to cost more than $50 billion.

Q4: What are the regional ramifications of the deal?

A4: Prime Minister Netanyahu has fulfilled the promise he made the day after the October 7 attacks that Israel's response would "change the Middle East." Israel has acted as a regional hegemon, striking capitals across the region. It decimated Hezbollah in Lebanon, contributed to the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and conducted unprecedented strikes against Iran, which left it severely weakened. However, Israel has not consolidated these military victories into sustainable strategic gains, as they have not been accompanied by diplomatic agreements.

The Israeli government could choose to capitalize on the momentum created by the Gaza ceasefire to consolidate its wins through a series of deals in the region. This approach would align with the vision that Gulf states favor, facilitating regional de-escalation and integration. Or Israel could continue to prioritize a military-led strategy in the region, maintaining its military presence in Lebanon and Syria and continuing to conduct strikes on its adversaries. This approach could enhance its supremacy in the Middle East but would entrench the region's destabilization and Israel's regional isolation. If President Trump continues to exert leverage on Netanyahu, he can shape the path Israel chooses and help usher in a period of calm in the Middle East.

Mona Yacoubian is senior adviser and director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Will Todman is the chief of staff of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and a senior fellow in the Middle East Program at CSIS.

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