USD 480 Billion Fossil-Fuel Costs Avoided by Renewable Energy Boom in 2025

When the Strait of Hormuz closed in early 2026, causing import prices to spike across Asia and Europe, existing renewable electricity generation provided a crucial financial buffer.

Across the three import-exposed Southeast Asian economies Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines for example, the existing renewable fleet avoided around USD 5.7 billion in coal and gas purchases in 2025. Valued at the higher fuel prices during the peak of the crisis in March-May 2026, those same volumes would have been worth USD 6.5 billion.

The economic benefits of renewable power go well beyond generation costs. Across 20 major economies assessed, accounting for about four-fifths of world's renewable generation, renewable power in 2025 avoided an estimated USD 377 billion in fossil-fuel purchases.

The geographic distribution of economic benefits closely mirrors the global distribution of renewable energy capacity. China alone accounted for USD 177 billion or around half of all cost savings, reflecting the scale of its renewable fleet. The USA placed second in avoided fossil fuel costs with USD 35 billion, followed by Brazil with USD 32 billion, India with USD 18 billion, Germany with USD 18 billion and Japan with USD 15 billion.

Since 2010, the cost of solar PV has fallen by 89%, concentrating solar by 72%, onshore wind by 71% and offshore wind by 63%. The massive expansion of manufacturing, especially in China, resulted in a highly competitive landscape characterised by thin margins and prices approaching production cost.

This phase of intense competition is shifting. Clean-tech manufacturing investment has halved, from a quarterly peak of USD 70 billion in 2023 to USD 35 billion by the end of 2025. And while China is reorganising its renewable industry, commodity and component prices are rising globally in parallel.

These developments, combined with a shifting trade and tariff landscape, are likely to exert upward pressure on total installed costs throughout this year. Over the longer term, however, IRENA's outlook suggests that costs will continue to decline to 2035, though far more slowly than before.

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