AI: Vibe Coding and Vibe Shifting

Software developers report a tremendous change in their experiences. Early LLMs could help to write snippets of code. Today's models can design databases, launch web servers and take an entire new app online. Early AI could help entrepreneurs write a business plan; today's models can build whole prototypes of a future business. And if this still seems far from home, consider that prominent holiday and Super Bowl television advertisements were AI-generated.

Despite these exciting developments, general perceptions of AI are apprehensive. Last year was marked by considerable enthusiasm around AI expansion and adoption. In the year to date, there is more worry that AI could disrupt sectors like software, transportation and financial services.

Further, some think that the potential impacts of AI on labor market conditions are becoming more apparent. AI is likely a component of the current low-hire, low-fire labor dynamic, and a reason for the challenges faced by younger workers. Hiring managers face pressure to do more with their existing teams rather than bring on new, junior workers. Business investment in equipment and intellectual property show no decline in appetite for expanding the application of technology.

Workers are wondering if AI might replace their roles. The fears are understandable. Since the Industrial Revolution, new technologies have supplanted workers; spare a thought for the horse carriage coachmen, elevator operators, newsies and typists. AI could automate the workload of a set knowledge workers who had previously considered their careers secure.

All of this raises the question of whether AI will put the economy on a worse trajectory. The research paper takes this to an extreme, and clearly struck a nerve. Observers are highly attuned to the risk of an AI reckoning.