Middle East: War Rages On, Civilians Pay the Price

• Med this Week Middle East and North Africa
  by Antonia Ricciardiello and Caterina Roggero
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The MED This Week newsletter provides informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we shed light on the impact of the ongoing war between the United States, Israel and Iran on civilian populations across the region.

Despite already causing significant disruptions in global energy markets, the war's long-term economic repercussions are yet to be fully assessed. For now, the most tangible cost remains the one borne by civilian populations in the Middle East. In less than two weeks, the quick military escalation between the US, Israel and Iran has claimed several civilian lives, damaged and destroyed critical infrastructure and forcedly displaced hundreds of thousands of people across the whole region. In Lebanon, the military confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah has rapidly triggered a nationwide humanitarian crisis. More than 800,000 people have been forced from their homes amid Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) airstrikes and evacuation orders in southern Lebanon and in the southern suburbs of Beirut. Unleashed by Hezbollah's decision to strike an Israeli military site in northern Haifa on 2 March - in response to the killing of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on 28 February -, Israel's ongoing campaign in Lebanon is once again plunging civilian communities back into conflict, with casualties exceeding 600 and 1,500 injured. But the highest civilian impact has been recorded in Iran, where the conflict has displaced up to 3.2 million and killed over 1,200 - including at least 175 schoolgirls and staff killed in a strike on an elementary school in the southern town of Minab on the very first day of the conflict. In this context, the Iranian people find themselves caught in a vice between US-Israeli attacks and a repressive regime, while still reeling from the open wound of the 8-9 January crackdown on nationwide protests, one of the deadliest in history. The human fallout of the war has also been exacerbated by the deliberate targeting of vital civilian infrastructure on both sides. After the IDF struck several oil storage depots in Tehran overnight, the capital awoke on 8 March under a thick cloud of toxic smoke that darkened the sky, triggered acid rain and left the air unbreathable. On the other front, after the US-Israeli attack on a desalination facility on Qeshm Island on 7 March - which supplies water to around 30 villages in southern Iran - Tehran retaliated the following day by hitting a water desalination plant in Bahrain. This episode highlighted a major vulnerability of Gulf countries, which depend heavily on desalinated water, where further military targeting of such facilities poses a serious risk to water security for tens of millions of people. In this context, while the long-term strategic objectives of the actors involved remain unclear, civilians across the Middle East are left in profound uncertainty and fear. How are people across Iran, Lebanon, Israel, the Gulf and Gaza enduring the escalating realities of the war.Which segments of the population are most affected? What are the wider implications for energy and food security in the region? And what measures are states taking to address such challenges?

Experts from the ISPI network discuss the impact of the ongoing war on civilian populations in the Middle East.

Israel's campaign against Hezbollah risks uprooting southern Lebanon

"Israel's brutal bombing raids and displacement orders have thrown Lebanon into chaos. Lebanese Shiites have suffered disproportionately, as Israel targets Hezbollah's military assets allegedly hidden inside their communities. Many Shiites have sought refuge in under-equipped public shelters or even on the streets, for lack of better options. Yet Israel's sweeping military operations look set to uproot other communities too. Christian and Sunni villagers, who initially refused to comply with Israel's displacement order for southern Lebanon, now face rising pressure to leave. Israeli leaders are pledging to establish a 'security zone' in the borderlands. That buffer may end up permanently evicting all local residents, regardless of political allegiance, rather than just Hizbollah fighters."

David Wood, Senior Analyst, International Crisis Group (ICG)

Lebanese government under strain amid growing humanitarian crisis

"The Lebanese state's institutions capacities are restricted and have been even more weakened following the economic crises of 2019. Few days after the eruption of the war, the government started to react to its consequences, but with limited impacts. It activated a WhatsApp channel, sent SMS messages via LebGov and established an official tracking system for shelters and their capacity. However, shelters, already overcrowded and lacking essential supplies, welcome 'only around 1260,000 people', while the number of displaced has reached more than 800,000. Many displaced are sleeping in their cars, tents and on pavements of the capital Beirut. In this context, a vast network of local initiatives, humanitarian organisations and community groups has been mobilising to help displaced communities."

Joseph Daher, Associate Researcher, Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies (BICC)

War on Iran threatens food security across the region, and beyond

"Food security risks becoming another collateral damage of the US-Israel decision to attack Iran. While this impact remains contained for now, a prolonged war could change the situation. There could be at least three kinds of fallout in a region characterised by chronic dependence on imports, limited agricultural productivity and extreme water scarcity. The most immediate effect concerns rising food insecurity in already fragile contexts: for instance, Iranian people already suffer chronic high food inflation, and the ongoing war will certainly result in a further deterioration; in Gaza, the Israeli decision to restrict aid access at the beginning of the conflict is already shrinking supplies and rising food prices. Secondly, disruption around the Strait of Hormuz or attacks to key infrastructure like ports could impact food trade and result in food shortages. Finally, and this would have a much broader impact, fertiliser prices. Gulf countries are exporters of urea, ammonia, phosphates and sulphur, key components of fertilisers (up to 30% of global fertiliser exports pass through the straits of Hormuz): a prolonged disruption of shipping along the route could raise their cost, affect profitability margins for producers and contribute to global food inflation. Over the past two weeks, the price of Egyptian urea, which is a benchmark, has surged by about 25%."

Aldo Liga, Research Fellow, ISPI MENA Centre

The risky weaponisation of Iranian Kurdish communities

"The American plan to arm several Iranian Kurdish groups based in Iraq shows how the Kurdish cause is instrumentalised by foreign powers when it suits them. Historically, the results of such endeavours vary. In Iraq, Kurdish support for US forces after 2003 created the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. But in Syria, Washington just terminated its partnership with the Kurdish People's Defence Units (YPG), which spelled the end of the Rojava project. In Iran, the envisaged project is unlikely to end well as it will be resisted by Baghdad where politics are dominated by Shi'a parties friendly with Tehran. It also gives Iran's government a rally point against separatism and foreign interference. A final problem is that if such groups are militarily ineffective, repression in Kurdish areas of Iran will likely worsen."

Erwin van Veen, Senior Researcher, Clingendael's Conflict Research Unit (CRU)

Despite fatigue, Israelis see war on Iran as a security imperative

"Civilian life in Israel was on a gradual path back to normalcy after the Gaza ceasefire and hostages return. The US-Israel war on Iran brings back war-time disruptions and costs, which Israelis have unfortunately had to cope with and adapt to ever since 7 October 2023. These relate to human life, property, psychosocial wellbeing, economy, international connectedness and nearly all aspects of everyday activities. Despite this and an evident war-fatigue, most Israelis currently support the attacks on Iran. They see it as an existential security necessity, as a possible final act of the Iran-backed 7 October attack, and as a unique opportunity - given the heavy US involvement - to alter geopolitical realities. But, there are also many doubts, mostly due to a lack of trust in Netanyahu's leadership and the over-reliance on military might. Without diplomatic processes, new and moderate leadership and peace-oriented 'day after' policy planning, the broader regional transformation that Israel needs, is likely to stay out of reach."

Nimrod Goren, President, Mitvim Institute; Executive Board Member, Diplomeds

Renewed regional war leaves Gaza's Palestinians in a limbo

"The Middle East as a whole is trying to recover from the whiplash of the last two weeks. First, it was promised at a convening of the Board of Peace in Washington that the region was on the cusp of peace and prosperity thanks to President Trump's 'Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict'. Gulf states, eager for stability in the region, then signed pledges worth billions of dollars to support Gaza's relief, recovery and reconstruction. Only days after that, they found themselves dodging incoming missiles from a war launched by the US president and Israel. And that is all one needs to know about the vacuousness of the US commitment to a Middle East free from war and violence. As far as Palestinians in Gaza are concerned, the off-and-on opening of Rafah is not the main concern. It is the UN confirmed genocide and ethnic cleansing that continues unabated. As the region sours on the Board of Peace and rethinks its pledges of support to the Trump-led body, the fate of two million people in Gaza hangs in the balance."

Zaha Hassan, Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Disruptions in oil markets test Gulf Countries resilience

"The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the worst case scenario that the Gulf Arab oil producers have long feared but never really expected to occur. This is a shock that has drawn attention to the world's reliance on the secure flow of Middle Eastern oil to world markets. If this market was tighter than it is currently, we would have seen much higher oil prices. As things stand, Saudi Arabia has put into effect a diversion of crude oil to its Red Sea terminal at Yanbu and expects to ramp up exports to 5 million barrels of oil per day within a short period of time while the UAE is using its crude oil pipeline to Fujairah outside the Strait of Hormuz to ship its flagship Murban crude oil. This, along with substantial storage that some of the Gulf Arab states have close to demand centres has mitigated the impact of the Hormuz closure to some extent. However, with oil production being shut down across the Gulf region and Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) under force majeure, it will take time to restore normal operations so I expect volatility to continue even after the conflict ends."

Kate Dourian, Contributing Editor, MEES

Iran's retaliation disrupts normalcy across GCC States

"The escalating US-Israel-Iran war has disrupted life for civilians in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, long known for their stability, safety and peaceful living conditions. In the UAE especially, constant security threats have occurred since 28 February , including missile and drone strikes on civilian targets. This turmoil has taken a toll on the mental health and emotional well-being of people across the Gulf. Loud nighttime explosions have disrupted sleep and exposed residents of the UAE and other GCC states to higher stress levels. Despite this, Gulf residents have shown resilience, and authorities and security forces have worked to maintain a sense of normalcy in daily life despite the war."

Giorgio Cafiero, CEO, Gulf State Analytics