Quarterly Review and Outlook

Quarterly Review and Outlook

On this page:

• Pork Price Outlook
• Price Chart
• Forecasts
• Downloads

Steiner and Company produces the Profit Maximizer report on behalf of National Pork Board based on information we believe is accurate and reliable. However neither NPB nor Steiner and Company warrants or guarantees the accuracy of or accepts any liability for the data, opinions or recommendations expressed.

Pork production in Q1 was 1.4% higher than a year ago and is on track to be up around 1% in Q2. For all of 2026, current forecasts call for pork production to be about 1.2% higher than a year ago. That is not materially different from expectations at the start of the year, yet hog and cutout prices this spring have been lower than earlier projections, and the market has also revised lower its expectations for the remainder of the year. Why the shift in pricing action when supply fundamentals do not appear to have changed much?

First, we think the market was pricing more late spring and summer supply risk from disease, no different than corn markets pricing the risk of summer drought. As it turns out, concerns about disease losses may have been overblown, at least based on the trend so far this year. Additionally, lower corn and soybean meal prices have encouraged producers to take hogs to heavier weights, further increasing supplies coming to market.

But the supply story explains only part of the shift in market expectations. The biggest change has come from the weak performance of bellies and hams. Our theory is that this directly reflects slow sales at foodservice establishments, especially quick-service restaurants. The ham market is heavily dependent on exports, particularly to Mexico, which takes about a third of all hams produced in the U.S. Unlike a year ago, when Mexican buyers were concerned about tariffs and pulled demand forward, there is no similar sense of urgency this year. With domestic sales slow, export buyers are in the driver's seat and have capitalized on their leverage as buyers of last resort.

Prices should see some upside in the next two months as supplies seasonally decline, but we have revised lower our forecasts for bellies and hams and, consequently, for pork cutout and hog values. Per capita pork availability is expected to slowly increase in 2027 and 2028 but remain close to the long-run trend. Overall, we think upside potential for pork prices is limited, although specific items remain highly vulnerable to shifts in retail promotions and foodservice demand. Current low prices may encourage more bacon promotions next year. We expect a more supportive pricing environment in 2027.

Pork Price Outlook

In our report earlier this year, we projected lean hog prices at $96/cwt, 1.5% higher than the previous year. That proved far too optimistic, and our current projection is a little over $89/cwt, about 5% lower than a year ago. The pork cutout is forecast at $98/cwt, 4% below year-ago levels and also lower than our forecast earlier in the year. In 2027, we expect the cutout to again average around $98/cwt, as increased production is offset by belly and ham prices reverting toward trend.

Price Chart

Forecasts