Commonwealth Poll: Spanberger leads Earle-Sears 49% to 42% in Virginia governor’s race

By L. Douglas Wilder and Robyn McDougle

The L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University today released findings from its latest Commonwealth Poll, conducted between Oct. 6-14. The poll captures voter sentiment ahead of Virginia's 2025 statewide election, providing insights into candidate matchups, voter priorities and the issues most important to Virginians.

Statewide races

Among registered voters, former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger leads Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears 49% to 42% in the race for Virginia governor, down from a 9-point margin reported in the September Commonwealth Poll conducted in August. Spanberger leads among independent voters, 35% to 24%, with 20% undecided.

In the race for lieutenant governor, Sen. Ghazala Hashmi holds a 44% to 43% edge over John Reid, compared with a 4-point advantage in the most recent Commonwealth Poll. Notably, Attorney General Jason Miyares leads former Del. Jay Jones 45% to 42% in the attorney general's contest, a net 9-point swing since the last Commonwealth Poll.

Margins are tightening across all three statewide contests, with the most notable movement in the attorney general's race, which has drawn national attention following reports of violent political text messages sent by Jones in 2022.

"Our school's poll results reflect little change in the race for governor, though the lead for Democrats has narrowed (Spanberger 49% to Earle-Sears 42%)," said L. Douglas Wilder, the 66th governor of Virginia. "The race for lieutenant governor shows John Reid within 1 percentage point of Ghazala Hashmi (Hashmi 44% to Reid 43%). The attorney general's race shows Jason Miyares moving into the lead over Jay Jones (Miyares 45% to Jones 42%). These results highlight that, with several weeks to go before the election, voters are paying attention to what the candidates are doing - and what they have done - as a precursor to what they will do if elected."

Top issues influencing voters

When asked which issue would most influence their vote in the upcoming election, 27% of registered voters identified the rising cost of living, followed by immigration at 14% and women's reproductive rights at 12%. This is a flip in second and third issues with immigration moving up one spot and women's reproductive rights dropping to third.

Control of the House of Delegates

Among registered voters, 47% say they want Democrats to hold a majority in the House of Delegates, while 44% prefer Republican control. Independent voters remain largely undecided, with 28% favoring a Democratic majority, 23% preferring Republicans and nearly half expressing no opinion.