Halloween’s biggest scare? It’s the price of candy

By Amelia Heymann

If you've walked down the candy aisle this month and experienced sticker shock, it's neither trick nor treat. According to Finance Buzz, the price of Halloween candy has increased 78% since 2020.

While inflation is one reason, other factors in the supply chain have impacted the price of the seasonal sweets. Jeff Shockley, Ph.D., professor of supply chain management and analytics in Virginia Commonwealth University's School of Business, offers insight into why the average cost of a 100-piece assorted bag of Halloween candy is now nearly - boo! - $17.

In broad strokes, why has candy gotten so much more expensive this decade?

Candy is just like any other grocery item, in the sense that all grocery prices have increased since 2020. Broader cost increases in raw materials, global logistics and tariff pricing have been affecting all types of groceries.

Cocoa prices, in particular, have increased at a faster rate than other types of groceries, as all of it must be imported into the U.S. market. Most cocoa, for example, comes from countries in Africa that now have tariff rates of 15% to 50%, so this has caused a predictable increase in candy prices. In addition, African harvests have been down due to unusually hot and dry weather, likely caused by climate change, which has increased the raw material cost for the main ingredient in the most popular candies.

Have price increases impacted the demand for Halloween candy?

Halloween remains a very popular holiday, so I suspect demand won't be all that affected in the short term. Recent reports suggest that people are scaling back on candy purchases and holiday spending in particular this year due to economic uncertainties.

Long term, there will be fewer children in the U.S. due to lower birth rates. It will be interesting to see if this has a material effect on candy demand during Halloween. The issues with tariffs and the lower yield of African cocoa are not likely to change in the near term.

Have other "candy" holidays, such as Christmas and Valentine's Day, been affected?

Raw-materials supply issues and economic uncertainty are likely to impact holiday purchases, regardless of the specific holiday season. I am particularly concerned about this coming Christmas season.

People I know in retailing have remarked that warehouses are unusually empty for this time of year. I am unsure if this is due to demand uncertainty or concerns about tariffs affecting inventory build. There are clear concerns by retailers that consumers may be cutting back on seasonal purchases due to economic uncertainty and pricing. However, it may also mean that "late shoppers" may find certain popular products unavailable.

I would advise people to do their Christmas shopping early and not to expect huge Black Friday discounts this year. We may also see a number of empty shelves as demand increases approaching the Christmas holiday. Thus, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy of weakening demand.